The Behavior Analysis Of Guangzhou Real Estate Market

Since the reform and opening up, the sustained and rapid development of real estate has promoted economic development rapidly in Guangzhou. With the implementation of the Pearl River Delta Development Plan and the elevation of the level of urbanization in Guangzhou, Guangzhou has appeared some market behaviors in recent years, such as unstable land supply, strong demand for commercial housing, imbalance between housing supply and demand, the rapid rise of housing prices and so on. In order to explore the deep-seated reasons, this thesis made a research based on multiple angles such as the supply and demand of Guangzhou real estate market, Guangzhou real estate market cycle and so on. so we can clear up the reasons and make an objective analysis on Guangzhou real estate market. This is of great significance to the healthy development of Guangzhou real estate.This thesis analyzed the supply and demand situation of Guangzhou real estate market based on two aspects such as Guangzhou primary and secondary land market and commercial housing sales market. and then it made a cyclical analysis on supply and demand in Guangzhou real estate market based on principal component and spectral analysis method. It is showed that the land market was affected significantly by policy cycle and market cycle; Land supply had a direct and significant impact on housing prices; The imbalance of supply and demand caused the rise of commercial housing price; Monthly housing price had significant negative correlation with the absorption cycle, so we can predict its price based on the absorption cycle of commercial house; The transaction form of land, transaction price of land, the changes of land supply, the distribution of land supply, the changes in land use and the land market policies all had a significant impact on Guangzhou real estate market.In addition, this thesis analyzed the fluctuatial cycle characteristics of housing supply and demand in Guangzhou real estate market through the principal component analysis and spectral analysis method. It is showed that: In the 1990~2004 years, except 1996 and 1997 years, there are enough housing oversupplies, housing price was rational. But housing price was in non-rational and rapid growth after 2004 year since that the housing supply was far less than demand. The main supply and demand cycles were 3.2a and 2.29a respectively in the Guangzhou real estate market, it means that the supply and demand were not in equilibrium and housing shortage often happens, so that housing price has a rising trend. At the same time, the supply cycle also had a secondary cycle(8a). In the long run, it often appeared that housing demand has steadily increased with the cyclical decline of housing supply, the imbalance between housing supply and demand caused the rise of housing price. Finally, this thesis suggested that we need strengthen the real estate market cycle research and take counter-cyclical policy measures to avoid the real estate market ups and downs.