The Study Of The Demand Of Guangzhou Housing Market

With the rapid economic growth, the tertiary industry plays an increasingly significant role in our national economy; China’s real estate industry is experiencing unprecedented rapid development. Housing as the basic guarantee and necessary material for people’s survival and development, real estate development is worthy of attention, the questions to be solved in the real estate industry are essentially human problems. Catering to human needs and solving the housing problem is the essence of the real estate development. The development of the residential market is always demand oriented and the demand is driven by demographic factors. Therefore, as the focus of human needs, analyzing of the relationship between human being and domestic demand, and exploring the effect of demographic changes on the residential demand help to predict potential future housing demand, which is beneficial to plan the future housing industry and the development of the real estate industry.This paper aims at Guangzhou City housing demand. First of all, it clarifies the concepts and theories related to the residential needs, and then form the descriptive analysis of the market demand, supply demand and people with different income impact on demand aspects of the development of the residential market in Guangzhou since2000. Secondly, we use inductive summary method and analysis method to identify the main factors of the Guangzhou City housing demand, and correlation analysis using SPSS software to detect the influencing factors of the demand for real estate in Guangzhou City. Using empirical analysis and analyzing the advantages and disadvantages of several prediction models in real estate industry, we collect related data of Guangzhou City and adopt the gray theory method and time series methods in the analysis of domestic demand and its development and changes in Guangzhou., we explore the impact of population and environment changes on housing demand from the population point of view, then we analyze and forecast the potential demand for housing of Guangzhou City from the Mechanical growth of population, growth of households, Natural growth of the population, Demolition demand. We aim at making a quantitative prediction analysis on the potential demand for the residential market in Guangzhou City for the next three years. And later in the thesis, based on the analysis for the status and changing trend of the housing market in Guangzhou City presented, we suggest that the Government should be the reasonable in controlling the real estate development and investment and the adjustment of housing structure to ensure the needs of each hierarchy of needs and increase the protection investment in housing and low-rent housing. At the same time, there have been some disharmonies in the market, drawing a lot of the attention of scholars, such as excessive investment in housing construction, over climbing housing prices and excessive demand for housing. If any of the above problems continues to develop, it will damage the housing market or even the development of the entire real estate industry. Therefore, it is necessary to examine the reasons for cause of these phenomena in the housing market. Moreover, in-depth economic analysis of industry development and policy formulation to improve the social welfare will undoubtedly be of great help.