The Comparative Research Of Real Estate Cycle In Shanghai And Guangzhou

The development of the real estate industry shows a phenomenon of cyclic fluctuation.Analyzing the cycle of the real estate industry, not only has a creative significance in theory,but also can guide the development of real estate industry in practice. This paper hope touse statistical method for analyzing the regional market of real estate, seek the reasons andfeatures of their cyclic fluctuation of different regions, can play the part of reference rolefor measure the development of region real estate and the development of nationaleconomy. At the same time it may provide the basis for making the macro-control policy offluctuation.Based on the study of economic cycle theory and real estate cycle theory of China andforeign countries, this paper establish an index system, then use Composite Index,quantitatively analyze the situations of Guangzhou real estate cycle since 1996 andShanghai real estate cycle since 1987; analyze the factors of investment, macroeconomic,policies which influence the real estate cyclic fluctuation of Guangzhou and Shanghai; thencompare the characteristics and factors of Guangzhou and Shanghai. Finally the paper putforward the measures that promote the stabilization of the real estate industry in China.