Analysis And Prediction Of Periodic Fluctuations Of Chinese Real Estate Market

The prosperity of real estate market can drive the development of 60 related industries such as finance, construction, building materials, fitment, furniture, household appliances, realty management, service industry and so on. Its immense effect on obtain employment, economic prosperity and financial revenue is nonreplaceable. Real estate industry, as one important driving engines of economic advance, has become an important pillar industry in Chinese national economy.The traditional viewpoint in which location is taken as the most important factor of real estate industry is incomplete. In fact, the anticipative earning rate of real estate investment is dominated by market cycle. So market cycle is the primary factor, and location is the secondary factor in policy decision. In order to get the maximum profit, study and application of periodic fluctuation of market is an unavoidable project for every competitor in real estate industry.Due to the absence of many essential statistical data in domestic real estate market, its panorama can not be reflected roundly and truly by scattered information. And the authenticity of short-term information is also under suspicion. In such a condition, some research work is performed as follows:(1) A composite index of annual prosperity for real estate market is established by a principal component analysis method based on statistical analysis, which is taken as a secular trend of real estate market.(2) Time series of leading enterprises in real estate industry found out from capital market, which have a high correlation to the secular trend of real estate market, are taken as the original data of market cycle analysis. Eliminate the effect of noise and seasons, we can get the periodic component in these time series. After that, we can perform cycle analysis on the periodic component.(3) Predictions on the medium & long term trend and inflexion points of Chinese real estate market are provided according to wave principle in security analysis and the result of cycle analysis.Fictitious economy and solid economy as well cycle analysis and trend analysis are combined in this study, which can redeem the shortage and poor reliability of real estate market information preliminary. The results of this paper have a considerable significance for...