Measurement And Prevention On The Real Estate Bubble

The real estate industry take an important part in stimulating domestic demand and promoting economic growth since the Government canceled the housing distribution policy.The real estate industry has become a pillar industry of national economy.The bubble very easily appear in our country because the market economic system is not perfect.The debate about weather the real estate bubble has appeared became a major phenomenon in newspaper with the high prices and widespread speculation in real estate industry.People have different conclusions about the real estate bubble because the real estate bubble has different definitions and measurement criteria.By drawing on current research literature,this article define house bubble as the non-smooth shift between .true sale price and market price which is caused by speculation in Real Estate Market.This paper presents State space varying parameter model based on quarterly data from 2002 to 2009 in China,calculated the Real estate prices which is decided by supply and demand in market.Compared with the selling prices,analyze whether the real estate bubble has existed.Finally,this paper give the recommendations how to controlling the real estate bubble on the curb speculation view.Compared with the selling prices,analyze whether the real estate bubble has appeared.This article is divided five chapters:The first chapter is the introduction part,The second chapter proposed the definition of the real estate bubble theory, reviewed the events of a typical real estate bubble,analyzed the causes of the real estate bubble and the relations of the real estate bubble with the economic Phenomenons such as economic cycle,inflation,and investment overheated,and finally pointed out the harm of the housing bubble;The third chapter mainly carried on the summary to the measurement methods of real estate bubble,then introduced the State Space Variable Element's Model as well as the Cointegration Theory,Unit Root Test and Johansen Test;The fourth chapter is the core of this article,the variables were selected,the reasonable market price of real estate was estimated by the State space model, the size of the real estate bubble was measure;The last chapter gave the recommendations of Controlling the real estate bubble on the curbing speculation view.