Study On The Measurement、Causes And Governance Of Commercial Real Estate Bubble In Chongqing

With the development of Chongqing economy,the commercial real estate development is confronted with great opportunities,at the same time,the issues such as high vacancy rate and homogeneity are also increasingly outstanding.According to the measures taken by the Chongqing government for commercial real estate inventory and the study of scholars on commercial real estate bubble,there is a great possibility of bubbles in commercial real estate of Chongqing.As a result,measuring the commercial real estate bubbles and the formation mechanism in Chongqing are extremely necessary.On one hand,Measures the commercial real estate bubble in Chongqing,and analyze its causes,then propose corresponding governance proposals that can effectively suppress the commercial real estate bubble and promote the healthy and stable development of commercial real estate in Chongqing;on the other hand,The characterization variables and methods used in Chongqing's commercial real estate bubble measurement have implications for the study of commercial real estate bubbles in other cities.This paper adopts the literature analysis and comparative analysis method to define the concept of commercial real estate and commercial real estate bubble based on the theoretical foundation of real estate bubble and commercial real estate research.The relevant literature of the measure method of real estate bubble is combed,the method of measuring the Chongqing commercial real estate bubble is found out,the relevant variables are determined,and the quantitative analysis method is used,relying on the state space model and the noise trader model to measure the degree of the commercial real estate bubble in Chongqing,and find the reasons for its formation.Based on the experience summarization method and the analysis of the causes of the commercial real estate bubble in Chongqing,the corresponding bubble management proposals are proposed.Commercial real estate in Chongqing is divided into houses for business use and office buildings.According to the establishment of the state space model steps,selection the factors of supply and demand of houses for business use and office buildings in Chongqing,and determine the characterization of variables,measure the value the basis of houses for business use and office buildings in Chongqing,using the basic value and the actual price difference to calculate the bubble.And then determine the weights by Chongqing houses for business use and office buildings development investment,fitting out of Chongqing city commercial real estate bubble,and the conclusion is: 2006-2009,the commercial real estate of Chongqing is small and shows a slight growth trend;2010-2017,Chongqing commercial real estate bubble basic high,In 2010-2013,the commercial real estate bubble in Chongqing showed a rapid growth trend,which declined in different degrees from 2014 to 2016,and then rebounded slightly in 2017.According to the results of bubble measuring,using the DSSW model validation the relationship between the noise investors expect.At the same time,analyzing Chongqing houses for business use and office buildings,combining with the relevant policy change,in-depth study of the causes of the commercial real estate bubble in Chongqing in 2006-2017.The results indicate that policy adjustments will directly influence on commercial real estate bubble,while the strict regulation is administrating on the housing market,commercial real estate will be in the development opportunity,but then the bubble will increase simultaneously;while a measure of destocking of commercial real estate inventory,the bubble will have a certain extent of decline.Therefore,residential market policy adjustment,commercial real estate development planning,and commercial real estate destocking are the main reasons for the direct changes in the commercial real estate bubble in Chongqing;The various mechanisms that noise investors rely on to make investment decisions are based on government policy,and the imperfect commercial real estate market mechanism,collecting relevant information,and collating and analyzing them to form expectations.Through the summary method based on experience,comparative method,combing the real estate bubble governance and first-tier cities in China commercial real estate management,inventory experience,according to the causes of commercial real estate bubble in Chongqing,commercial real estate bubble are pertinently put forward management advice: the Chongqing municipal government should formulate regulations and related regulations for commercial real estate industry;third-party agencies should improve the innovation mechanism of financial instruments and strengthen credit management;improve the commercial real estate market,to achieve effective suppression of Chongqing city commercial real estate bubble.Through the study of commercial real estate bubble measure,formation mechanism and governance countermeasure research in Chongqing,this action plays a promoting role in providing a healthy and stable development of commercial real estate in Chongqing,and also provide an effective control of commercial real estate bubble in Chongqing.