Estimate Of Real Estate Bubbles Of Chengdu City Based On The State Space Model

As a public service industry, real estate offers the most basic physical space for collective production and life. Under the mechanism of linkage effect and diffusion effect, the real estate can influence the development of related industries in a direct or indirect way. The market gradually grows along with the reform of the urban housing system. Due to the encouraging policies, it has enjoyed significant growth in the past10years, however, the over-supply and increasing price in the housing market is non-balanced, so it is in irrational prosperity stage. The price of commercial residential building keeps growing, and the increasing amount of the housing price is significantly larger than that of income of residents. Thus the operation of housing price at a high level has become an obstacle to the sustained and healthy development of the economy. The overheated investment and pent-up demand combined to create a retaliatory increase of price in2011, the increasing amount considerably larger than expectations of the general public and the government. The development of real estate not only easily leads to property-value bubble and overheated investment, but also impedes the progress of industrialization and urbanization.The paper defines a concept of the real estate bubble based on available research, combined with real estate bubble theory; also analyzes the real estate bubble measurement systemically; combines theory and practice, qualitative and quantitative study and chooses the Chengdu City as the research object, using21groups of data in1999-2010years to do Chengdu City real estate bubble degree analysis and measure, through the construction of State Space Model for empirical research; analyzes the factors leading to the property bubble, suggests measures to improve the estimate of property bubble and provides reference and background for government policy-making. The main conclusions are:(1) The contents of the real estate and the real estate bubble will be elaborated in detail. The real estate bubbles is a kind of group speculation caused by the irrational expectation of increase for the future prices of real estate by real estate developers and house buyers, with the trigger of speculation demand, the virtual demand which expands excessively causes an unstable and higher price level than the theoretical price or the price determined by economic fundamentals. It in turn results in the phenomenon of false prosperity. Its essence is the phenomenon of price movement.(2) Describes and analyzes the status quo of the Chengdu property market. It’s found that ever since2000, the price of commodity house has been growing constantly, surpassing the growth of average income of urban residents. The construction area of commodity house is large, while its completed residential area is relatively small. The real estate is under supply imbalance and the housing price-to-income ratio is on the high side.(3) The result of the practicability analysis of measurement methods indicates that by all methods, it only performs static analysis on the bubble, and can only get its existence rather than its size. However, the State Space Model will include the unobservable value into the observable value, and estimate through kalman filtering, so as to get its size.(4) After analyzing the bubble measurement results of real estate of Chengdu from1990to2010based on State Space Model, divide the bubbles of real estate of Chengdu into four stages, and make an analysis of the reasons causing bubbles.