Dynamic Measure Study Of Real Estate Bubble

Since the reform and openness in 1979, China's economy has been growing rapidly. China's economy has been regarded as a high savings, low consumption and export oriented economy. Until the global financial crisis broke out in September 2008, China has changed its export driven economy strategy by means of the expansion of financial policy to increase domestic demand and encourage personal consumption. At the same time, with "growth depends on the investment, and the investment is determined by the government" as the guiding ideology. China has implemented the credit expansion policy sharply, which makes a large number of investors poured into the real estate market, of course, also includes a lot of speculators. All kinds of phenomena have further promoted the real estate market prices rose sharply. By the end of 2015 General Secretary Xi Jinping Put forward the concept of "destocking", nowadays, the real estate market is extremely hot.For a long time in the future, the real estate industry will play a very important role in our country and its change will affect many other industries. The regulation policy of real estate industry is always the emphasis and difficulty of the nation and the local government, the house prices is always the focus of attention of the public. However, China has a vast territory, and the real estate market in different regions is not the same. Therefore, it is necessary to measure the price bubbles in different regions and then make a comparative analysis.First of all, this paper reviews the definition of the word "bubble" by the domestic and foreign scholars, and in this paper, the housing price bubble is defined as:the deviation from the basic value of real house price, and the stability of house price migration rate can be used as a means to determine whether there is a serious deviation, local and national real estate bubble contrast can determine the extent of the price bubble in the region.Secondly, this paper reviews the real estate market price bubble measurement methods and divides them into three categories:index method, statistical test method and model method. In this paper, we will combine the index method and the model method to measure the price bubbles in China, Shanghai and Chongqing.Thirdly, this paper calculates the annual house price income ratio from 2002 to 2014 and gives a preliminary judgment:during these 13 years, nationwide did not appear bubble in real estate prices, it should be a very small degree even if the bubble appears; The house price bubble has been formed in Shanghai and the bubble relatively more serious after 2008; There was no bubble in Chongqing real estate market, it is worth noting that, in most years, the Chongqing real estate market prices were likely to be underestimated state.Fourthly, by means of multiple linear regression analysis and state space modeling, this paper estimates the price bubble of the three places, the result is basically consistent with the preliminary judgment of the house price income ratio.Finally, through the comparative analysis of different methods, the real estate market price bubble in different cities, this paper mainly draws the following conclusions:(1) House price income ratio can be a very good reaction in different areas of China's housing bubble overall situation; Multiple linear regression is simple in calculation, and the overall trend of bubble is accurate, so it can be one of the method to measure the housing bubble; Due to the precise iterative algorithm, and a comprehensive consideration of the problem, state space modeling is a good way to measure the real estate bubble.(2) The price bubbles in different regions of China are very different. National real estate market in general is in a state of healthy development, nationwide price bubble is a very small degree and is following the laws of the market fluctuation; The house price bubble has been formed in Shanghai and the bubble relatively more serious after 2008, if we do not take effective measures, further deterioration of the price bubble may lead to the national and global financial crisis; There is no bubble in Chongqing real estate market, and in most years, the Chongqing real estate market prices were likely to be underestimated state, so investment in Chongqing City real estate market will be a good choice.(3) China has a vast territory, the price bubbles in different regions of China are very different. When formulating policies related real estate regulation, the authorities should consider both common macro control policies and regulatory policies with regional differences.The characteristic of this paper has two points mainly:(1)Different methods are used to measure the real estate bubble, and the applicability of different measures is summed up. State space modeling is a good way to measure the real estate bubble.(2)Through the analysis of the difference of the price bubbles in different regions, this paper want to make recommendations for the government's price control policy.