A Study On The Measurement And Prevention Of Real Estate Bubble

With the acceleration of urbanization in China,the real estate industry,as one of the important pillar industries in our national economy,although started later than the developed countries in the West,yet with the rapid development of the economy as well as the skyrocketing house prices in major cities in the past few years,has become a hot topic of concern.The housing problems have always been related to the vital interests of the people and whether there is a bubble in the real estate market is also a much-talked-about topic.This article takes the real estate bubble as the starting point of the study,taking the real estate market in Hefei as an example.First of all,through the summarization of relevant study at home and abroad,the meanings of bubbles,economic bubbles,and real estate bubbles are introduced in this paper,then by analyzing the causes and harms of real estate bubbles,introducing some methods for the measurement of the real estate bubbles,the status of real estate in Hefei city is finally analyzed in this paper,besides some related measure methods are introduced to quantify the real estate bubble within the city.In the fourth chapter,the quantitative analysis method was adopted.First,by using the index method,four typical indicators were selected to quantitatively analyze the real estate development in Hefei.Through the horizontal and vertical comparison of various indicators,the result indicates that the real estate bubble phenomenon in Hefei was deadly serious in the two years of 2010 and 2015.While in the rest of the years,the bubbles were not particularly obvious and there was no significant fluctuation in real estate prices during that period of time.The result of the ADF test proves the existence of real estate bubble in Hefei,then through the establishment of a market speculation model,the size of the real estate bubble in Hefei is eventually measured and it is calculated that the real estate bubble value in Hefei has exceeded the international warning value.Last but not the least,the factors that affect the real estate bubble in Hefei City are analyzed.Six factors that may affect house prices are selected to establish a multiple linear regression model.Soon afterwards,according to theresults of empirical research,some related suggestions and opinions are provided,from the angle of the government and finance-related department,for the healthy development of real estate and the prevention of real estate bubbles in Hefei.The development time of China's real estate market is not as long as those of foreign countries,and the combination with market investment mechanism is still not perfect.In foreign countries,early scholars have combined the research of speculation and real estate and have achieved very good results.Based on the mature research abroad,this paper makes a study on the problems related to the real estate market in Hefei and draws its own conclusions,hoping to provide good suggestions and references for the development of the real estate in China.