The Evolution Of Allocation Of Wheet Production In Huang-huai-hai Region

Food security is of the utmost importance, concerning both social stability and economical security. The demand for food is growing steadily, while grain production in China is exposed to a more and more serious restriction of water and soil resources. As a major food source, wheat relates to the national food security. This article aims at exploring the evolution of the allocation of wheet production and providing scientific basis for optimization.The research mostly does some research following: 1) find out the trend of the evolution of allocation of wheet.2) calculate the comparative advantage of wheet in every province and discover its geographical features.3) work out the Moran's I of output and comparative advantage of wheet.4) Based on model of spatial econometrics, analyze the factors of the evolution.5) Point out the existing problem or the reasonability and put up with corresponding countermeasures and suggestions.The main conclusions of this dissertation are as follows: 1) There is spatial correlation between the neighbored provinces or counties, the Moran's I of comparative advantage of wheet has shown a decline tendency; 2) The agglomeration region of comparative advantage moves from Middle West of China to Huang-Huai-Hai region; 3) The wheat production concentrates to Huang-Huai-Hai region, aggravating the problem of water shortages. In the interior of Huang-Huai-Hai region, wheet planting has moved to western-south of Shandong, east of Henan and north of Anhui, which is the rational to some extent. But the ability of undefending drought is weakening; 4) At the end of this paper, some suggestion is advanced for the optimization of he allocation of wheet in Huang-Huai-Hai region.