The Study On Spatial Distribution Characteristics Of Farmland Transfer And Its Tendency In The Huang-Huai-Hai Plain

The management rights transfer of rural farmland is a product of agricultural development,through land transfer,large-scale,intensive and modern farming systems can be carried out.And as contracted land use rights of cultivated land is related to the modernization of agriculture and national food security,it has become a hot research topic.The paper contains a large sample of census data of 45,500 households in 4,550 villages,455 counties,and a small sample of survey data of 7,700 household in 770 villages,77 counties.We disposal the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain Farmland Transfer and land operation household survey data(including early management of arable land,arable land into the year,the year roll-out of arable land,arable land at the end of operation,plots area,garden area,grain acreage,crops sown,etc.).Depict the Huang-Huai-Hai plain in 2008 Farmland transfer spatial patterns have evolved spatial and temporal characteristics of indicators and data.Based on index system of farmland circulation characterization and the Huang-Huai-Hai plain farmland circulation situation survey data,the expansion of space stratified sampling of the number of samples,to carry location information Hai Plain Farmland Transfer supplementary investigation and determination of the sample.Combined with the remote sensing interpretation of data,we use the software of ArcGIS,Stata and poverty map,the statistical theory,and we also use the small sample of known data to infer a large sample of unknown data by regression analysis. We used the ELL scale model to calculate the agricultural land circulation in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain.The results show that:The transfer of farmland in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain has great spatial differences,farmland transfer area mainly concentrated in the northern Jiangsu area,the northern region of Shandong,Shandong province and Hebei Province,Henan and Shandong areas,Hebei province border region,the circulation trend is decreasing in southeast to northwest trend.The main areas of agricultural land transferred in Jiangsu and Anhui provinces,while the northern part of Shandong turn into a trend is more obvious,on the whole circulation of agricultural land transferred decreasing trend from south to north.From the microscopic point of view of individual farmers in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain Area of farmland circulation distribution is not uniform,farmers to transfer to a higher rate of area is located in the Beijing Tianjin Hebei region,northern region,Henan Province,Shandong Province in the northwest,the area farmers mainly cultivated land into farmland,flow rate is low.Agricultural development condition in this area is good,the higher the level of intensive agriculture,farmers are land transfer intention.Turn the area of agricultural land is mainly concentrated in the southern region of Jiangsu and Anhui,agricultural land transferred trend showing an increasing trend from north to south.Combined with the spatial diagram and six natural geographic features(Regional average annual rainfall,Multi-cropping index,farmland slope,soil organic matter content,production potential arable land,the affected area of the total sown area percentage,tillage layer thickness),we analyzed the impact of its intrinsic mechanism.then use Binary Logistic model to analyze the driving mechanism of farmers cultivated land transfer behavior caused by the quality characteristics of cultivated land owned by farmers respectively from the transfer-in and transfer-out of cultivated land;the results show that:Arable farming production potential and thickness of farmland into a forward drive has a significant effect,multiple cropping index,farmland slope and the affected area of the total sown area percentage have a significant negative effect on the cultivated land and driving area,while regional average annual rainfall and soil organic matter content of the cultivated land into a more significant negative driving effect and out of all instructions in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain,precipitation and soil organic matter content is greater,the arable land circulation behavior is not easy.Finally,according to the foregoing analysis,here raised some relevant policy recommendations in order to scientifically and reasonably promote the transfer of cultivated land in Huang-Huai-Hai Plain.