| Due to the swift development of global industry, huge increase of energy consumption, and scarcity of fossil fuels, the whole world will be confronted with risk of energy shortages. As the new generation of renewable, clean, safe energy, biodiesel is welcomed. Therefore, many countries have formulated ambitious plans to develop biodiesel.Under the environment of closed economy, We develop a partial equilibrium model belonging to agricultural sector which contains five main crop, rice, wheat, corn, rapeseed and soybean and four main livestock, beef, pork, mutton and chicken, uses the price mechanism, which is based on the theory of neo-classical economics, to simulate that developing rapeseed biodiesel effects on the supply and demand and prices of crops and livestock with GAMS software.In the "Reference Scenario", as population growth and increasing per capita GDP, consumers increase demand for paddy, rapeseed and soybean, but reduce demand for wheat. The farming land for paddy is 28.492 million hectares in 2008 and 27.019 million hectares in 2012. The farming land for rapeseed, corn and soybean steadily increase. However, the wheat area drops continually from 20.788 million hectares in 2008 to 18.379 million hectares in 2012 while the total supplies of paddy, rapeseed, corn and soybean increase. On the contrary, the total supply of wheat decreases 3.95% compared to the base year. The production of pork, beef, mutton and chicken in five following years will increased by 11.9%, 45.2%, 22.9%, and 22.7% respectively compared to the base year.In the Scenario of developing rapeseed biodiesel, the total supplies of paddy, rapeseed, corn and soybean raises by 27.3%, 24.3%, 19.3%, 7.7% while the total supply of wheat reduces by 3.4% in 2012 compared to the base year 2007. At the same time, the livestock supply increases dramatically, with an increase of 11.5%, 34.1%, 27.7% and 22.7% in 2012 compared to the base year 2007.Compared to benchmark in the Scenario, from 2008 to 2012, the total supply of rapeseed and wheat increases progressively and the main trend of corn and soybean supply increases while the paddy supply decreases. For livestock, in the five years the total supply of pork and beef increases. On the contrary, the mutton supply reduces and there is little influence on the total supply of chicken compared to the benchmark. The crops and livestock consumption changes in pace with their supply and the consumption of wheat is decreasing while others is growing.Therefore, considering the little benefit to the energy system and effect upon the agricultural system, developing rapeseed biodiesel needs government guidance. |
