Construction And Application Of Global Computable General Equilibrium Model Based On GAMS

In March 2015,the national development and Reform Commission,the Ministry of Commerce,Ministry of foreign affairs jointly issued "to promote the construction of Silk Road Economic Belt and twenty-first Century Maritime Silk Road vision and action",clearly pointed out that the trade flow is the key content of The Belt and Road construction.The government should promote the non strategic docking with the Eurasian countries,along with national effort to eliminate trade barriers,to discuss the construction of "The Belt and Road" free trade area,stimulate the potential for cooperation.China and Central Asian countries has a strong complementarity in agricultural products trade.China and Central Asian countries are close to the geographical position,there is the potential for cooperation.On the background of "The Belt and Road" construction,Chinese-Central Asia Free Trade Zone will greatly promote the development of bilateral trade.In this paper,we construct a global computable general equilibrium model based on GAMS,and use the model to analyze the impact of China-Central Asia Free Trade Area on China and Central Asian countries.By referring the basic structure of GTAP model,the global CGE model includes the price module,production module,trade module,institute module and market clear module.In the construction of the model database,according to the variables in the model,the social accounting matrix of 119 countries was compiled.We have a detailed description of the agricultural production sector,including 8 farming sector,the 4 animal husbandry sector and forestry and fisheries.The data of Social accounting matrix come from the GTAP9 database,and updated it using input-output table and some trade data,then balance the updated SAM by least squares method.In the empirical analysis,policy scenario setting for the Central Asia region in all tariffs will be zero.The simulation results show that the FTA tariff reduction has a promoting effect on economic development of member countries,the growth rate of GDP,the total import and export volume increased.The micro level of industrial output,import and export of a free trade area.Outside the national macro economy from the negative impact.This paper is divided into five chapters,chapter 1 presents the introduction,including research background and purpose,research review,the innovation points,the structure of this paper,the research review is a summary of the research on CGE model and social accounting matrix based on GAMS;chapter 2 is the construction of CGE model based on the CGE theory,and introduces the setting of the construction of the global general equilibrium model,database structure and dynamic mechanism;chapter 3 introduces introduces the construction of the global social accounting matrix structure;chapter 4 uses CGE China-Central Asia model constructed by the impact on the construction of Chinese-Central Asia FTA do empirical simulation analysis,including simulation of the introduction of the background,the source of the data,the simulation principle,simulation program setting,analysis of the baseline scenario prediction and simulation results;chapter 5 is the summary and outlook.