| The rapid growth of China's economy increases demand for energy. China becomes the second largest energy consumer behind the United States; Secondly, in 2004, China imported 120 million tons crude oil, which accounted for more than 40 percent of the total oil supply. It is estimated that the total oil consumption will reach 400 million tons by 2010, while the capacity of domestic production will be 160 million tons to 1.7million tons. However, with rising price of international crude oil, depending on large numbers of import may trigger the issues of energy security; Finally, In the past 20 years, the development of China has given great pressure on the environment. In 2003, carbon dioxide emissions reached 823 million tons, the second in the world. About 2025, Carbon dioxide emissions of China may be the first position, when it will exceed the United States. In fact, with facing economic development, energy security and environmental pressure, biodiesel, renewable, clean and safe, is well welcomed.Whether biodiesel project is feasible or not, the key lies in the supply system of raw material.There are two different points whether it takes rapeseed as raw material to develop biodiesel in China. Supporters consider that rapeseed can be planted on winter-free farmland, Which not only can reduce the lose of winter-free farmland and increase farmers' income ,but also couldn't compete with food crops and upgrade soil fertility. However opponents deem that developing rapeseed biodiesel would affect the security of primary products. At present, biodiesel made from vegetable oil is not competitive with fossil diesel. China can not use a lot of arable land to cultivate rapeseed for biodiesel production. Because rape cultivation requires a large amount of land, while China has large numbers of population and possesses finite land resource.We must firstly ensure the security of food supply. Of course, China doesn't import large quantities of rapeseed to produce biodiesel. Because the net import of edible oil and raw materials (including soybean, rapeseed) reached 10.25 million tons in 2004 in China, which accounted for about 60 percent of the total edible oil.Our model mainly refers to the IMPACTmodel developed by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). Under the environment of closed economy, We develop a partial equilibrium model belonging to agricultural sector, which bases on the theory of neo-classical economics, uses the price mechanism, to simulate that developing rapeseed biodiesel affect on the area , the supply and demand and prices of four main crops, wheat,rice,rapeseed and soybean with GAMSsoftware. We used the method of SAS ridge regression to estimate model parameters, ARMAmodel to forecast population and Logistic model to forecast the per capita GDP.In the "Reference Scenario", because of population growth and increasing per capita GDP, consumers increase demand for paddy, rapeseed and soybean, but reduce demand for wheat. The farming land for paddy is 26.143 million hektares in 2006 and 78.395 million hektares in 2020.The farming land for rapeseed and soybean steadily increase. Rapeseed farming area is 7.981 million hektares in 2006 and 13.821 million hektares in 2020. Soybean farming area reaches 11.216 million hektares in 2006 and 19.121 million hektares in 2020. However, the sowing wheat area drops continually, 24.711 million hectares in 2006, to 16.343 million hectares in 2014, and to 6.025 million hectares in 2020.The total supplies of paddy, rapeseed and soybean increase. On the contray, the total supply of wheat decreases from 15.17 million tons in 2006 to 37.014 million tons in 2020, and the average annual decreasing rate is 7.8 %.Compared to benchmark in the Scenario, from 2006 to 2020: The farming area for crops increases reposefully, with an incidence of 0.71%-28.43%, 0.08%-0.98% and 0.17%-2.88% for rapeseed, paddy and soybean from 2006 to 2020 respectively, While the farming land for wheat decrease obviously, by 0.05% in 2006, by 0.93% in 2014 and by 8.33 % in 2020. The annual increasing ability of crop unit yield rises, with an incidence of 0%-0.26%, 0.02%-0.24%, 0.19%-6.82% and 0.11%-1.84% for wheat, paddy, rapeseed and soybean respectively. The crop supply also increases, with an incidence of 0.10%-1.23%, 0.86%-35.75% and 0.15%-3.24% for paddy ,rapeseed and soybean respectively, while the total wheat supply cuts down every year, by 0.1% in 2008, by 2.12% in 2017 and by 6.28% in 2020.The total consumptions mount up,with an incidence of 0.07%-0.74% and 0.09%-3.20% for paddy and rapeseed respectively, while the total consumption declines by 0.11%-16.60% for wheat,0.01%-0.15% for soybean .What is more important is that developing rapeseed biodiesel obviously triggers crop prices rise,with an incidence of 8.57%-500% or so, 0.46%-237.72%, 5.04%-37.19% and 0.95%-17.36% for rapeseed, wheat, paddy and soybean respectively.From this research, in the scenario, the production quantity of biodiesel is not practical and strategic significance.Biodiesel production accounts for 0.007% of the total oil consumption in 2006, and it is forecasted that that occupies only 0.025% of the total oil consumption by 2010.However, developing rapeseed biodiesel impacts food supply seriously, such as reducing the supply of wheat from 0.04% to 6.28%,increasing 4.27% of arable land to cultivate rape; making crop prices rise, and so on. Therefore, we suggest our country couldn't constitute policy to encourage them to develop rapeseed biodiesel. |
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