Study On Partial Equilibrium Model Of China Meat

Over the past 30 years,China's meat production and consumption has experienced rapid development,China's total meat output ranks first in the world.China's meat output reached 86.25 million tons in 2015.Meat production and consumption is not only relation to farmers' income,consumer welfare and environmental protection,but also directly related to national food security.Feed grain now has become China's grain demand of the main driving forces.It has great significance for making national science livestock development policy,and better meet people's meat demand and maintaining national food security with accurately prediction of future meat demand and supply of China.Firstly,the existing research on the long term prediction of the supply and demand of meat products in China is reviewed in this paper;the problems existing in the prediction are analyzed.Secondly,the current situation and influencing factors of Chinese meat supply and demand were analyzed.Thirdly,considering the history meat production of official statistical yearbook were overstated,the history meat production data of the statistical yearbook were modified.Fourthly,a partial equilibrium model of Chinese main meat including pigs,cattle,sheep and poultry was established,and the relevant parameters was obtained by the three stage least square method.Based on the established model,the nonlinear programming is used to solve the problem,then China's meat supply and demand forecast from 2016 to 2025 were obtained.The main conclusions of this paper are as follows:1.Over the past 30 years,China's meat production and consumption had been rapid growth.Meat production is concentrated to larger farm,the productivity of meat was increasing,and the price of meat was rising fastly.From 1990's,China's total meat production and pork production have approximately linear relationship with time,the average annual increase in meat production is about 2.4 million tons,the average annual increase in pork is about 1.6 million tons.Absolute population growth,urbanization and income growth are the three main factors that affect the growth of meat consumption in China.2.China's meat production data of Statistical yearbook is still overstated.The data obtained by "three stage method" in this paper is better than that of Statistical yearbook.China's meat production data overstated of Statistical yearbook may be the main reason that the prediction of China's meat production of some major international organizations were generally underestimated.3.China's meat production will maintain steady growth in 2016-2025.China's pork,beef,mutton and poultry output will be reach respectively 74.217 million tons,9.43 million tons,5.24 million tons and 22.6 million tons in 2025.Total meat output will reach 113.77 million tons,an increase of 30.1%compared to 2016;from 2016 to 2025,annual meat output growth in China will reach 2.96%.In 2025,pork,beef and mutton and poultry production accounted for 65.2%,8.3%,4.6%and 19.9%of the total China meat output.China's meat production efficiency continues to improve.4.China's meat consumption increased slightly higher than the output growth,meat imports continue to maintain high growth from 2016 to 2025.The sum of imports of pig,cattle,sheep and poultry will reach 6.824 million tons in 2025;meat export will reach 750 thousand tons.Pork producer prices remain stable,the price of other meat products continue to rise sharply in the future.