Research On The Methods Predictions Of Construction Land Quantity In County-Level Land-use Planning

Since 1987 China has organized the two rounds of general land use planning and preparation and implementation work. Formed by the country,province,city,district,and town5 levels, covering the entire land of general land use planning system.The land demand forecast of general land use planning is the important part and the core content. It is during the planning department according to the change of land use plan development process and its regularity. Objectively Considering the various departments of land and particularity, using modern techniques for the next several years of land use in advance, and to coordinate departments evaluation of contradiction, adjusting structure of land use and layout, provides the basis.The last round since the implementation of the general land use planning, land use and management have a role to play, but also met with many problems, one of which is the demand forecasting results of construction land doesn't conform to social economic development. A new round of land use planning is the new era background, need to construction land demand forecast for scientific research, thorough preparation of general land use planning.This paper firstly construction land demand forecasting the basic theory and the forecast method is analyzed. This prediction method based on induction into the mathematical model and the traditional decomposition method. Two kinds predict from the land use planning revision of reality, linear multi-regression model and gray system GM (1,1) model. According to the principle of certain of construction land, the influence factors of the preliminary selection, using the correlation analysis of key factors for screening, According to the factors, using the screening of regression analysis building construction land demand forecasting the multivariate linear regression model, and the optimization model, in order to make model more scientific, higher precision. Given the grey system GM (1,1) model of sample quantity is not high, and can change desalt uncertainty affect the process of establishment of the model, construction land demand forecasting, increase the prediction accuracy. Another combines the traditional decomposition method to analyze the forecast, Yongchuan district planning for the future development of key projects and space, the prediction of construction land also has certain directive significance. Yongchuan district of Chongqing city as the western region, radiation the southeast of Sichuan and northwestern Guizhou's regional central cities in western Chongqing, it is an important outbound traffic hub and regional logistics center, and it is the key cities, new economic growth potential. So the Yongchuan district as a case study of exploration has certain significance.Based on the Yongchuan district of Chongqing new round of land use planning, combined with the practice of Yongchuan district, using the data from 1997 to 2005, the social and economic statistics and data analysis of the construction land, GDP and investment in fixed assets, the urbanization level, population is Yongchuan district construction land, the main factors of changes in Yongchuan constructed the mathematical model for prediction of the construction land area multiple linear regression model, and the optimization model, in order to make model more scientific, higher precision, At the same time to grey system GM (1,1) model of construction land, demand forecasting and prediction in traditional decomposition, in order to achieve the rational forecast.Chapter 1:Introduction (1) literature review. This paper reviewed the overseas construction land forecasting methods of theory and practice, and some experience and inspiration, through the region of population, economic and social indicators of urbanization level with the correlation analysis between construction lands, can predict that use the land for construction of domestic demand, and construction land prediction is reviewed, the existing shortcomings. (2) Of article introduces the background and significance, research methods and technology.Chapter 2:Yongchuan district background. Including the geographical position, the natural condition and social economic status.Chapter 3:Yongchuan district of land use status and dynamic analysis. This chapter according to Yongchuan district from 1997 to 2005, the number of construction land statistics analysis Yongchuan district construction land quantity and quality structure, construction land change, changes the constitution construction land, and relevant social and economic statistical data, using the correlation analysis, the influence of Yongchuan district construction land use acreage of factors make changes.Chapter 4:Yongchuan district construction land driving growth. This chapter respectively from the population development, investment and economic output growth of construction land is analyzed, and the driving force analysis are analyzed, the mining land and urban land for traffic and the correlation between the land for construction purposes.Chapter 5:based on the mathematical model of construction land prediction. This chapter 9 years Yongchuan district according to the social and economic statistics, the main nature of using multiple regression model and the method of grey system theory Yongchuan district predict future construction land area.Chapter 6:the traditional construction land prediction. This chapter is divided into six classes' construction land, then to collect partial predict the future of the land for construction purposes.Chapter 7:two kinds of forecasting methods. Based on two kinds of theoretical basis, the forecast method of research and analysis, the conclusion:based on the mathematical model of the construction land use acreage forecast method and traditional decomposition prediction method is bad, the former more deeply, meticulous quantitative research on qualitative research, the latter two kinds, so dominant forecasting methods are complementary, two kinds of methods of comprehensive quantitative prediction results can weaken alone or qualitative research deficiency.Chapter 8:conclusion and discussed. The paper studies on the main ideas were summarized and concluded, and the existing problems are discussed.Based on the 1997-2005 Yongchuan district in Chongqing province social economic statistical data and construction land use data by using multiple regression model and gray prediction system and decomposition method, analysis of construction land demand of grey-multiple linear regression prediction model, this paper is for land use planning, construction land index for scientific and provide decision support.