A Study Of Tobacco Demand Prediction For Yunnan Tobacco Commercial Enterprises

The Chinese tobacco commercial enterprises face many challenges due to the long-existing monopoly regulation and proceeding marketing progress. By now, there is not yet a kind of convenient, simple, practical quantitative prediction method for the Chinese tobacco commercial enterprises, because that present tobacco demand's prediction methods' researches pay more attention to theorization, modeling, precision and top-down administrative instruction about how much to sell. This article bases on the PEST model to single out the key factors that infect the tobacco demands by tightly thinking of the unique features of the tobacco products. Then based on generalized demanding function model to build a function between demands and demand influencing factors, afterwards collects relevant historical data, finally calculates the coefficients of the influence factors by regression analysis and time series prediction. At the end, find out the next 5 years' tobacco demanding prediction of Yunnan market. The aim is to construct a convenient, simple and practical prediction method for the tobacco commercial enterprises in China. That will be very helpful for the marketing progress for planning, promoting and execution of tobacco products.