The Research On Bank Real Estate Credit Risk Based On The Real Estate Cycle

As the national economic development, Chinese real estate prices have been rising, since 1998 when Chinese housing system reformed. The market has built a decade of prosperity. Especially in the past two years, the real estate market the real estate market developed explosively. However, both the Chinese housing prices and turnover fell, with the outbreak of"the loan-to-crisis"in United States and the increased global economic volatility. The Chinese housing market "inflection point" is rife, the real estate credit risk has been exposed.Property is one of the pillar industries in China and the fluctuation of real estate industry is bringing financial and economic stability tremendous impact. How will Chinese real estate operate? How should commercial bank guard against real estate credit risk? In this paper, we studied Chinese real estate operation of the track from a macro point of view based on foreign real estate development in historical experience. With VAR model this paper empirical tested the three core factors - the national economy, the level of urbanization and the Housing Real estate investment, effecting the development of domestic real estate market. Testing and the result of Johansen test, Granger causality test and the impulse response function confirmed that the three core factors are important to the real estate industry. On this basis, we gave the answers of three key issues about the real estate industry in China -"what is the development trend?""is there any cycle?"and"where is it in?"in the paper. The core element of China's real estate industry has not changed; they still maintain the good trend that will continue to promote Chinese real estate development. Because of short history, premature system and other reasons, Chinese real estate industry has not complete the full cycle of operation; current real estate deviated from the normal track of the growth of industry, There are many bubble in it. Therefore, we proposed the opinion of track-changing that guide the healthy and stable development of the market .Instead of the process from prosperity to the decline through the "inflection point", in my opinion the falling of prices reflects the return of bubble to normal. It always happens on the way for growth to maturity. Through the state's policy control and guide to the correct concepts, the real estate industry can return to the right track. Finally, we suggested a series of recommendations against real estate credit risk under the current situation of the real estate loan of commercial banks...