Research On The Real Estate Credit Risk In View Of The Change Of Economic Cycle

In recent years, the real estate industry is developing rapidly, and which has led the development of consumption, investment, it becomes one of the most important industries in national economy. As we all know, from one hand, that the real estate industry is a capital-intensive industry, but in our country, its financing channels is single and a large part of the funds is from the commercial banks, on the other hand, the commercial banks also support the individual housing consumption. Due to China’s imperfect financial market, social credit system as well as the credit system of real estate inner commercial banks, the real estate relying on commercial banks excessively brings potential risks to commercial banks. At the same time, with the diversification of the economic situation and national policy, the scale of commercial bank credit will also change and it may lead to the ascension of bad loans rates. Therefore, the research for the real estate credit risk is good for promoting the healthy operation of commercial banks, guaranting health and stablity of the real estate industry, so as to promote the development of national economy.This paper firstly analyzes the relationship among the economic cycle, the real estate cycle and the commercial banks credit cycle and introduces the risk gripe experiences of the real estate credit risk in the United States and Japan. Then this paper analyses our country’s economic cycle since the reform and opening up and the impact of commercial bank behavior, describing the influence mechanism of macro economic fluctuations to the commercial bank’s real estate credit risk. Secondly, this paper analyses current economic situation, and economic downturn, national macro-control’s effects to the developers, personal and commercial bank’s behavior, and this behavior then affects the real estate credit risk of commercial bank. At last, this paper puts forward related suggestions, including holding the national policy’s diversification, changing commercial banks’ management idea; improving bank’s professional management, paying attention to the real estate credit risk; developing diversified financing channels, dispersing commercial bank’s real estate credit risk; strengthening supervision, perfecting personal credit system and so on.