The Empirical Research On The Relationship Between The Real Estate Cycle And Credit In Shandong Province

The development of economy drives or produces the space requirements of commercial housing and service facilities then stimulates the market of the real estate. Now, the real estate industry has become an important industry and driving force for national economic development. Since the reform and opening up, China’s real estate industry goes into a rapid and unprecedented development period. In the process of development, the real estate industry shows the feature of cycle fluctuation, this phenomenon causes great attentions and researches of relevant scholars. In addition, some scholars also try to describe and identify the cyclicity through a variety of methods.The rapid development of the real estate industry can not do without the support of the real estate credit funds. In our country, the needs of the real estate development funds mainly come from the bank credit, other financing methods such as the listing and financing, bond financing and real estate trust just is a smaller proportion.70%percent of the total capital summed every stages of exploit comes from the real estate credit funds. In addition, the unremovable feature of the real estate decides great differences in different countries’and different cities’real estate market. Because the close relationship between the real estate credit and cycle, the regional and diversified features of the real estate industry, so, this paper aims to explore the relationship between the real estate periodic fluctuation and the real estate credit in Shandong Province.This paper is divided into six parts. The first part briefly introduces the background and significance of the research, and then presents the domestic and abroad research status from two perspectives. The second part analyzes the relation between the real estate cycle and the real estate credit from the theory angle. The third part describes the real estate industry status of Shandong province from the angle of real estate investment, funding sources, demand and supply and so on. The fourth part is the embody of the paper, this part uses the VAR model to analyze the empirical relationship between the real estate cycle and the real estate credit in Shandong province. The result of the study shows that the real estate credit has a lagging and positive effect on the cycle, so we can use credit policies to control and smooth the cycle fluctuation. Relatively speaking, the M2expand or contract supply has an invalid effect on cycle fluctuation. The fifth part gives the real estate regulation and policy recommendations from four aspects, according to the results of the empirical analysis and the real estate industry situation in Shandong province. The last part states the shortcomings of this paper, and puts forward the direction of next improvement.