PPP Risk Indicator System And Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation

PPP (Public-Private Partnerships) is considered an effective way to promote infrastructure and public services. It effectively alleviate the government's financial pressure through the cooperation between government departments and private investors (sponsors), since complementary advantages and risk-sharing. Also, the private sector is usually more efficient than government departments.However PPP project financing has enormous risks, because of long payback periods and complex contractual relationship. Especially in China, government departments concessions due to urgency or other factors, but it can not honor its promise in implementation or dispute when risk outbreak. As a result, only a few PPP projects perform successfully. Therefore, in-depth risk assessment is necessary, for both government departments and private investors.In the past few years, many western countries have begun to engage in the PPP risk analysis. Our research on the ground is limited by comparison. There are only a few quantitative assessment methods which is difficult to operate and not pertinent. In light of these, this paper proposes a research framework for PPP project risk quantitative assessment by combine fuzzy comprehensive evaluation and project risk management technology, to assist the public and private sectors to assess the risks and make the right decision.The basis of PPP project financing is reviewed firstly-including the basic operation mode, the main participants, and the different interests of various participants- to identify principal risk factors. And on this basis, PPP risk indicator system is developed. Then, a detailed study of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation is conducted. Further more, how to use multi-stage fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model in PPP project risk assessment is discussed.In this paper, the author summarizes the principal risk factors of PPP project and developes PPP risk indicator system. The author develops assessment baseline of weight coefficient which indicates risk factors'severity and proposes establishing every comments'reference conditions which reflects risk factor outbreak probability, so that the experts'judgement more rational and objective, and experts score and other quantitative results can be evaluated on the same basis. In this paper, fuzzy comprehensive evaluation of PPP project risk assessment model is improved, and PPP risk indicator system is refining pertinently. So that, the practicability of fuzzy math for PPP project risk analysis stride forward a little.The paper has been supported by the National Natural Science Foundation Project—Study on the Risk-control in PPP Project Finance in Western City.( No.60633020)...