Research On The Simulation Of The Emerging Industries System In Jilin Province

" Research on the Sustainable Development of the old industrial base in Jilin Province" reply that, from 2005 to 2020, Jilin Province should have three levels of competitive forces in the businesses, industries and economic overall social, and the capability of sustainable development , then play an important role in the economic and social development of China as the new industrial base. Then, it need to develop five competitive industries with Jilin characteristics that is at a important position in the country's economic development, and play the role of pillars in the province economy; At last, enhance the Jilin Province economic and social development in order to occupy the upper part of the middle socioeconomic range in the society, and to be a harmonious society with sustainable development. Emerging industry is the new economic growth point of economic development in a region, have higher potential or realistic rate of economic growth than the average level in an economic system, and plays an important role for overall economic growth of the economy.In this paper, the theory of emerging industry as the theory evidence, system dynamics simulation method as the method of the research on simulation of emerging industry in Jilin Province, the data that used in this paper, is directly or indirectly from the "Statistical Yearbook of Jilin Province" in 2003 to 2007. After reading the related literature and information, the author found that vast majority of the current study is still at the initial stage, and focus on the choice benchmarks, the choices of industry mainly concentrated in the leading industry and pillar industry rather than emerging industry. So the research of emerging industry in Jilin Province, especially simulation research has a crucial role of the future economic development of Jilin Province.Because this article focuses on the research on the simulation of emerging industry of Jilin Province, the choice of emerging industries of Jilin Province directly use the mainstream approach that most scholars agree, which is, several indicators were marked and order, and then summarize these scores. The indicators the this article used is the output, the growth rate of gross industrial output value, the fixed assets, the ratio of total assets to industrial value and the ratio of pre-tax profit to cost. By using these quantitative indicators, the choice of emerging industry of Jilin Province is: manufacture of tobacco, mining and processing of coal, electric power, and heat power, production and supply, manufacture of nonmetal mineral, mining and processing of ferrous metals, manufacture of ferrous metals.Then, this paper set up the simulation model of the emerging industries in Jilin Province that including six subsystems which stand for related industries and one central subsystem. Six industrial subsystems connect through the central subsystem by the resource limit, resources per output value, total investment, GDP, the rate of financial revenues.The investment can be directly controlled by the government, so in the simulation analysis, this article simulate on the investment mainly. that is the ratio of industries GDP in different investment , and the ratio of industrial value per person in different investment. Through the simulation, the author found that the largest ratio of GDP growth for investment is the manufacture of ferrous metals, and the smallest is mining and processing of coal and mining and processing of ferrous metals; as the same, the largest ratio of industrial value per person is electric power, and heat power, production and supply, and the smallest is mining and processing of coal and mining and processing of ferrous metals.Through research on the simulation of the emerging industry system in Jilin Province, some suggestion for the government in supporting and nurturing emerging industries are giving priority to the development of energy industries; defining the key industry and developing with substantial support; defining the reasonable ratio of investment, balanced the development of several industries; and supporting in all aspects not only in the investment, at the same time paying attention to sustainable development.