Research On Forecasting Three Schemes Of Industrial Structure Adjustment Based On System Dynamics

Industry is the foundation of regional economic. The growth of economic, in the final, is promoted by the growth of industry and the recycling of industries. It is critical to regional sustainable development that the establishment of a rational industrial structure and the promotion of the industrial structure towards the coordinated development of economic, social, environmental and energy. It's a threat to the economic benefits , the efficiency of the consumption of resource and environment, if there is not a reasonable industrial structure. At present, the study of industrial structure is more focused on the economics and by qualitative research. The results of quantitative research of industrial structure from the perspective of the environmental are rarely. The researchers aware the shortcomings of the research perspective and methods that were used before, and gradually study the industrial adjustment from the environmental perspective with the quantitative method.This paper combine the theoretical analysis and model analysis to analyze the adjustment of industrial structure of Wuhan City as an example, to reveal the impact of industrial restructuring on the economic, social, environmental and energy. According to the research, different adjustment programmes were analyzed then chose the best programme for Wuhan City. And do some quantitative research to evaluata the the gains and losses under the situation of implementing the policy to restructure industrial structure. The main content and conclusions are as follows:(1) Based on the theory of industrial structure and the mutual relations between the industrial structure and economic growth, energy consumption and environmental, the industrial structure of Wuhan City, from 1980 to 2005, is evaluated. The existing problems of the industrial structure are found and the directions of industrial restructuring are given. (2) Based on industrial restructuring objectives of "11th Five-Year Plan" and "Two types of society" experimental zone for implementation of energy-saving and emission reduction requirements in 2007 of Wuhan City, there are three industrial structure adjustment programmes:①inaction ,②industrial structural adjustment,③industrial structural adjustment + energy emission reduction. (3) This paper establish two models by using the systems dynamics software -Vensim: a model for industrial structure adjustment; another model for the energy-saving and ejection-decreasing. The model include population, GDP, the total pollution (COD emissions, SO2 emissions and solid waste emissions) and energy consumption, and take the ratio among the primary industry,secondary industry and tertiary industry, environmental protection investment and science and technology investment as three policy factors. then we test the validity of the model, the error of the simulation and historical value is no more than 5 percent, it shows that the model of industrial structure adjustment of Wuhan City by system dynamics can effectively represent the actual system because industrial operating results and the actual data highly fitted, and the simulation and the policy analysis have the reliability and accuracy.(4) Forecast the population, GDP, COD emissions, SO2 emissions and solid waste emissions, and energy consumption of Wuhan City (2005-2010) By using energy-saving and ejection-decreasing system dynamics model . From the compare with the industrial structure adjustment model we can know the implementation effect of the energy-saving and ejection-decreasing: it make the GDP to fall from 4289.23 to 419.32 billion yuan, the depression is 9.603 billion yuan, the total decrease in pollution is18,900 Tons, and the total decline in energy consumption is 13.1041 million tons.(5) Analysis the forecasting results of the Three Schemes of industrial structure adjustment (2005-2010) from industrial structure adjusting or not, the energy-saving and ejection-decreasing or not, the sort of all subsystems and the results comparing with target values; we choose the optimization of the Three Schemes , form "two types of society" we should be selected the three industrial structure adjustment and proposed the suggest of the industrial structure adjustment of Wuhan City at last.