Study On Financial Prewarning Mechanism Based On Grey Model

In order to solve the existing problems that lie in the current financial warning index and the financial information distortion problems, the thesis took the manufacturing industry as an example, carried on analysis of the enterprise finance risk. In the foundation of absorbing the predecessor's achievements, this thesis proposed warning index, carried on the case's analysis and the empirical research, then easily realized the prewarning process through the MATLAB platform. The thesis also made out a demonstration that supplied references to the study of financial crisis warning in our country.Firstly, the thesis elaborated the background and significance of the research, and summarized the current study situation about financial crisis warning. The thesis have certain understanding the development of warning model ,through the description and the analysis of domestic and foreign financial crisis warning system.Next, this thesis proposed the gray forecast model in view of the financial risk existing certain regular, the gray forecast model can forecast whether the enterprise has the financial risk in a certain time. The thesis pointed out the reason of selecting the cash flow index through analysis of tradition indexes'limitation and cash current indexes'superiority. And take Yin Guangxia as an example, the thesis confirmed that the cash flow index is better than the traditional index. This thesis selects representative and the persuasive index from the cash current index --- free cash flow index, and analyzed whether enterprise has the financial risk through the analysis of it.Once more, the thesis chose 10 manufactures ST Corporation in order to certificate free cash flow and the finance risk is connected. And selected the free cash flow index of ST Yingte company to analyze,Finally, in view of the present situation which the enterprise takes to the cash management insufficiently, we analyze all kinds of factors to set up an integrated system of cash flow predicting indexes, provided a new way to the financial crisis warning of the manufacturing industry company.