Study On The Investment Value Based On Grey Prediction Model

With the increasing investment and M & A activities in the market,how to locate the underlying business value accurately has great influence on the successful acquisition of M & A.As the basis of price decision,value assessment is the key to determine the value that the purchaser can create from the perspective of a specific investor in the M & A activities of enterprises,that is,the investment value of a target enterprise.In the evaluation of the investment value of the technology path is determined,the international market is commonly used to assess the value of the investment value of the type of enterprise merger and acquisition;research about the value of domestic investment,reached a certain height in theory,but in practice,the actual operation of the practical demonstration of the lack of.The main line of our current value type is still market value.Based on this,the evaluation technology and method route is difficult to meet the needs of valuation in the investment and merger of enterprises.Therefore,the practical research of investment value is of great theoretical significance and practicality.This paper analyzes the present situation of domestic and foreign investment value of the concept of investment value evaluation theory and evaluation methods are summarized;in enterprise merger theory and investment value theory as the foundation,through the comparative analysis of investment value and market value,to evaluate the investment value of the technology path leads through the application of the method;evaluation of the analysis,discusses the choice of assessment methods to assess the investment value,and focus on the applicability and advantages of the income approach in business investment value assessment to make the statement;the final selection and application of widely discounted cash flow model as the focus of this paper in the analysis and comparison of various models in the income approach after,and in the enterprise future cash flow forecast creatively introduces the grey forecasting model,introduced the principle and application of the model In order to improve the accuracy of the evaluation results of the investment value,the model is modified to improve the residual error correction.Last April in Beijing by star acquisition as an example,on the basis of the above theoretical analysis and the identification of project background synergies,to determine their value types as investment value evaluation process;application of discounted cash flow model,respectively,to the traditional empirical method and grey forecasting model to forecast the future cash flow of the sky in April get the value of the enterprise,and the value of coordination in incremental cash flow,so that the investment value of the assessment results,and the two evaluation results of the analysis of advantages and disadvantages,we get the evaluation conclusion.The theoretical summary and case analysis combined with the quantitative analysis of investment value form a rigorous framework,which can be used as a reference for other similar assessments,and also hope to provide a reference for practical research of investment valuation.