The Study Of Food Safety Of Jilin Province Based On Supply And Demand View

Food security is a major event in people’s livelihood，and the government is now moreand more focused on the food safety. The first policy document of2014from the centralgovernment pledged grain self-sufficiency and rations absolutely safe. This is a new pointof view to secure food supply, and that changed the previous opinion which means maintain95percent of domestic food supply. Jilin contributes a lot to the total grain supply of ournation，which is related to the food safety of our whole country. In this paper, the authortries to analyze the supply and demand through food production and consumption so as toput forward constructive solutions.As to the theory, the paper combing the results of food safety research scholars, andchoose the supply and demand direction to study food security of Jilin province. In thestudy methods, the paper used ARIMA model to forecast food production in the followingfive years. It shows that the total production of grain will achieve more than40million tons,which has laid a solid foundation for food security. The paper used factor analysis methodto research the factors affecting food production in Jilin. The author summed up materialinputs, water and air temperature are the one mostly impact on food production and putforward corresponding solutions.In the measurement of food consumption, the author divided into three aspects that isration, feed grain, and industrial use of grain. AS the latest "China Food and NutritionDevelopment Program (2014—2020)" issued, we consider rations as a separate part andmeasured its security level. Since the calculation of the number of rations is depended onthe population, the paper carried an estimated population of Jilin Province.TheauthorusedtheGompertzmodel, GM andDGMmodeland made a comparison of the results. Itshows DGMprediction error areminimum when forest the populationafter2004. So,DGMmodel are used to predict the population of next five years. Based on the nutritionindicators, the author calculates the total amount of food consumption. According to the analysis, Jilin province can achieve absolute rations security. In the estimation of feed grain,the paper divided into four kinds of consumption aspects, such as meat, eggs, milk, and fish.Due to each aspect correspond to different consumption proportions, the author calculateseach part of food consumption and at last made an integrated computing. Using the aboveresults plus the leakage quantity, the paper got the final food consumption.From the comparison of grain supply and demand, the author concluded that the wholefood safety level is above the rations safety level. Jilin only consumes30%—40%of totalgrain production, the rest supplying to other regions. The food security in Jilin is absolutelysafe, but people should never regardless the safety caused by the excessive cultivation ofcorn.This paper proposespolicyrecommendationsbasedon materialinputs, strengthenthecultivation ofimproved varieties, emphasis on scientificcultivationandpreventiveexcessivecorn cultivation.