Simulation Of Dynamic Change In Land Utilization In Turpan Based On CLUE-S Model

Because of the special geographical position and environmental characteristic of Turpan, the studying of land use and cover change of this area has unique meanings, and it has important theory meanings for setting up the experience model of land use and the regional of coverage change of arid area in our country. Advanced CLUE-S model in the world is applied to Turpan in this text to simulate the land use and cover change in the area. The main content and conclusion of this research are as follows:(1)It has explained and analyzed the function and purpose of the modeling of the land use change, the structure and development trend of the model, and has recommended several kinds of model of land use change, which are of great impact at present, analysed briefly the main weak point existing of these models.(2)It has analyzed the interrelation between the land use change and driving force , it is the foundation to set up the dynamic model of land use change, through analyzing many kinds of driving force of causing the land use change ,this text draws out the driving force of greater influences to carry on quantitative analysis.(3)Adopt the current situation picture of the land utilization of Turpan in 2005, turn it into grid form,each grid represents the area 0.64hm2,merge pattern of the land use into: a)cultivated land,b)field,c)forest land, d)the meadow,e)land used for cities and towns,f)area of residential area of countryside,g)independent industrial and mining land,h)unutilized area, i)others. Using the method analyzing, it has chosen 12 kinds of drive factors that has made important contribution to land use/coverage change of this area, set up driving force file with the method Arcview space analyses,analyzed the weight (βvalue) of each kind of driving force with logistic regression function of SPSS13.0, set up logistic equation, and input it in the model. It has set up 2 kinds of demands suppose, to simulate the land use/coverage change in this area.The simulation result shows: Land demand schemes are different, the quantity of one dose of units of the bar that the use changes is different too, simulation scheme 1 that predict pattern and area of the use of every land adopting the time analytical method of the array, to emulation scheme 2 with the policy guidance, has more dose of units of bar receiving data transforms, and its predict result is affected greatly by historical data. Therefore, simulation result 1 received by importing scheme 1 to the demand module has more attribute of bar dose of inutility to transform and become the forest land and field. All kinds of land demand in simulation scheme 2 are got on the basis of the revision of land demand scheme 1. It has considered the request of the relevant policy in the studying area and has the restraint with certain transformation of the farming land (includes the cultivated land, field, forest land and meadow). So, relative simulation 1, simulation 2 accords with the actual conditions even more.ROC inspection result shows that, fit degree of various kinds of land including: cultivated land is 0.934, field is 0.915, forest land is 0.858, meadow is 0.793, urban area is 0.999, area of residential area of countryside is 0.929, independent industrial and mining area is 0.874, unutilized land is 0.816, other area is 0.762, degree is greater than 0.75, degree is rather good.