Reasearch On Hydropower Investment Project Risk Evaluation

The social and economic benefits of Hydropower Investment Project are great, however,politic, technology, economic, social and environment confined it development. There are a lot of unpredicted and random factors made Hydropower Investment Project risky.So it is meaningful to research on Hydropower investment project risk evaluation.The article combined with the modern risk management theory to the Hydropower projects features and practices in our country, raised the conception of the Hydropower project risk management and designs integrated project risk management model.From perspective of investment project risk evaluation, this thesis used method of system analysis, quantitative and qualitative analysis, and used theories of system engineering, project management, risk management, project evaluation. First, by using of uncertain analysis method, system analysis method, multi-angle analysis method and risk factors identification to Hydropower investment project, it defined a list of risk factors and designed a risk evaluation index system of Hydropower investment project. Second, it applied this index system to JinPing Hydropower investment project of YaLong River and used the Delphi method and SPSS to select indexes and formed a risk assessment model to JinPing Hydropower investment project of YaLong River. Finally, it applied Fuzzy mathematics integrated method to JinPing Hydropower investment project of YaLong River. It also obtained the weight of index system and classified risk level of the project. Moreover, the value of risk comprehensive evaluation of JinPing project is achieved and levels of risk are classified. This research proved the index system and the model is correct and applicable. And based on the distinguishing and judging of the risk on Hydropower project, the article researched the means of evading risks and designs the system of the Hydropower engineering insurance in our country.This thesis is an exploration of Hydropower investment project's risk evaluation and positive function of progress to quantitative, scientific and standard of Hydropower investment project's risk evaluation. It provides some references for Hydropower investment companies to evaluate project's risk.