| Under the global economic integration background, an ideal international currency system ought to be able to promote international trade and international capital flows and form an effective economic order. Exchange rate mechanism is the extremely important ingredient of the order then. Since the breakdown of the Bretton Woods system, there occurred a series of financial crisis (Latin America Debt Crisis in 1980s, currency crisis in Great Britain, Mexico and Russia in 1960s) and the recent Asian financial crisis, which are all related to the arrangement in exchange rate mechanism. Therefore, options for an exchange rate mechanism become very critical for the countries, especially those transitional economies.With the differences in economic foundation, political systems and processes of marketization, transitional economies differ in there route choices even though their long term goal are identical: steady growth. Therefore different exchange rate mechanisms result in different economic situations. What in the deeper cause and could in be identified through systematic analysis, so that the experiences or lessons could be summed up for China's economic development. This is the purpose of the present dissertation.Transitional economies from plan to market, is most phenomenal in the end of the 20th century. The discussions on the transitional economics are focused on two typical cases, the Russian shock therapy and China's gradualist approach. The present text is to analysis the two typical cases of Russia and China, in their exchange rate mechanism during transition, in particular through compare and analysis their exchange rate mechanism evolution path and historical fact, so as to perspective and dissect the economic transition process of the typical state from the exchange rate mechanism choice and economic stability relations side. The text also wants to analysis and objective evaluate the successful experience and the defeat reason of China and Russia, and obtains some universal conclusion, for example, the choice basis of the exchange rate in transitional economies, the economic effect and the system choice objective necessity and provides some beneficial reference for our country.This article is divided into four parts after introduction.The introduction part mainly includes the writing background and the present studies. First, it elaborates that under the economical globalization background, compares and studies China and Russia which are the two typical cases and then provides the beneficial reference for our country's exchange rate system have very strong practical significance. Next, it summary the important progress of the present academic circles which appear in the exchange rate system. Separately introduces the present research situation of "doctrine of the original sin" " fear of floating " "middle system vanishing theory "and" exit strategy", as well as the research of the exchange rate system and the economical achievements, and simultaneously enumerated the three aspects which the literature and the monograph mainly centralize in.The first part is this article's theory foundation, the exchange rate system and the transitional economies. First, it discusses that after the breakdown of the Bretton woods system, exchange rate system's pattern and evolution tendency. Through the inspection of the various countries' exchange rate system choice from 1981 to 1998, we has been allowed to see that since the 80's, the national proportion that choose more nimble exchange rate system is unceasingly rises, the national proportion that choose nails fast exchange rate system is to drop, this tendency is more obvious after enters for the 90's. Next, the text elaborates the exchange rate system choice could influence a country's international trade, international capital movement and government's macroeconomic policy. Finally, it discusses the choice of the exchange rate system in transitional economy in three stratification planes which is exchange rate system choice determining factor, exchange rate system choice importance and exchange rate system choice basis.The second part introduces Chinese and the Russian's exchange rate system evolution process and the influence. First it describes that from 1949 until now, RMB exchange rate system experience six stages. Second, it selects 1981 to 1996 to take the sample sector, surveying the RMB exchange rate depreciation's influence to our country related economical variable. Discovered, since 1980, our RMB exchange rate have altogether has 4 times of larger scale depreciation, each depreciates obviously promoted our exportation in next one or two years. But the RMB depreciation's influence to our import is actually complex, thus explained, although the exchange rate is an important factor to the import, but the national import policy's influence is bigger. At the same time, the RMB depreciation also has the certain promoter action in our country's foreign direct investment, also this kind of promoter action generally obviously displays in 1-2 year later. Third, it concentrates discusses the ruble exchange rate system historical evolution. Finally, discusses the influence of the ruble exchange rate's undulation. It introduces the ruble exchange rate undulation situation, and centralism discusses two secondary load big events of Russia which experienced in the transitional economies: "black Tuesday" of the ruble during the "interior exchangeable" time and 1998 financial crisis.The third part is the core part of this text. It compares and analyses the choice of China and Russia's exchange rate system. This part is altogether divided into three stratification planes. First, it analyses the process and the background of China and Russia's transitional economies. Next, it describes China and Russia's exchange rate system choice in the different transitional economies. Finally it explains the objective necessity of China and Russia's choice in the different transitional economies.In the fourth part, it elaborates the future policy orientation of the RMB exchange rate system under the economical globalization starting and the China's accession in WTO background. The author believes that, the exchange rate target area system is China's exchange rate system reform direction, in order to implement this exchange rate system, our country must carry on a series of necessary reforms. First, cancels the compulsory knot to sell collects request, carries on the implementation wish knot sell collects system. Second, perfects RMB exchange rate mechanism. Third, strengthens market supervising and managing. |
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