The Sustainability Theory Of Transitional Economy

The rapid development of China's economy for more than 30 years since the reform and opening-up created a miracle for the economy growth worldwide. However, a hidden question rose: whether the rapid growth of China's economy is or will be sustainable. How to rebuild an economy development theory based on the orientation to the so-called comprehensive, coordinated and sustainable value is an important theoretical and practicable question during the rapid economy and social transition in China. This article built a sustainable model of endogenous growth by focusing on the sustainability of the transition economics. This thesis used various mathematical analysis and empirical test comprehensively. It took the economy data from 1978 to 2006 of China as samples and studied the sustainability of the transition economy qualitatively and quantitatively. The whole research based on the analyze convergence trap, sustainable space (including technology, elements and region space) and economy rights endowment.First, the thesis built a sustainable endogenous technology-economic growth model to characterize the intrinsic performance mechanism of technology progress for realizing sustainability of the transition economics. It revealed a performance rule of transition economy progress the technology imitation could promote the economic growth in backward countries at first, but it would slow down their economy development when the growth rates of backward countries came to close to that of developed ones.Second, an empirical study carried out by analyzing the sustainability of the economy growth in China since the transition from the technology, elements and region space, revealing the structure of the transition economy in China. The technology sustainability of technology space was analyzed by using all-factor productivity calculation Malmquist and Gray Model (1, 1) forecasting. The sustainability of element space employed the dynamic simulation method of MCMC and the TVP state variable parameter measurement. The region sustainability was researched empirically by analyzing the impress difference of both labor power and regional capital of the east, middle, west and northeast of China, respectively. This study pointed out that:1. The improvement of the all-factor productivity came mainly from the efficiency improvement because of their optimized allocation during the economy transition in China. The technology growth due to the import-open imitation had slowed down. The rapid decreasing elasticity of capital element productivity and the stable increasing elasticity of R&D input-output crossed with each other in year 2002. It can be assumed from the endogenous economy growth model that, the transition economy in China had passed over the critical state from the technological imitation to creation. If there were no such an adjustment to creation technology, the already development pattern couldn't support the technology improvement required by the economy development. Therefore, the economy growth in China would fall in the development trap unavoidably which was experienced by other countries as well.2. The different speed of technology and efficiency improvement provided not only space for the sustainable economy transition in China, but also put forwards requirement to different regions. The diversity of technology growth, efficiency improvement and economy development in different regions in China provided a basement for the regulation about how to develop technology roundly coordinately and sustainably.3. The extraordinary promotion effect that capital element used to do to the economy growth has decayed quickly and continuously. The transition economy in China needed the help of other elements to keep its sustainability. During the economy transition in China, the contribution of labor power was tested to be not notable. The first and third industry didn't contribute notably to the economy growth as well. The element space for the sustainable development in China should focus the sustainability of the labor element, especially the function of the third industry.4. The thesis carried out a theoretical and empirical analyze about the relationship between the economy right endowment and the economy growth in underdeveloped area. The result showed that, the reason to the slow developing in underdeveloped area was the number of economy right endowment had difficulty to improve the local economics, resulting a low regional self-engendered ability. The regional development policy had showed a positive effect on the economy growth in developed area by promoting the employment of material capital in underdeveloped area.To sum up, the economy growth in China is a typical transition economy. Its prophase rapid growth has a close correlation to the present technology imitation strategy in China. This is also the unavoidable consequence due to the transition economy endogenuous regulation proved by this article. For the comprehensive unisonous sustainable development and economy transition in China, four strategies must carry out. They are the transition strategy (from imitation to creation), the dominant elements improvement strategy, hinterland space exploitation strategy and highlight economy of the underdevelopment area strategy.In total, this thesis built a novel transition endogenous economy model. It furthered the overtaking theory of Barro & Salai-Martin and the Frog-leap model of Brezis,Krugman & tsinddon and enriched the relationship between the technology and the economy growth. The sustainability of the economy growth in China was studied theoretically and empirically from the technology transition space, dominant element space, regional hinterland space and regional structural space. The framework for the analyze of transition economy sustainability presented in this thesis exploited the category of sustainability research. And the study between the economy right endowment and the economy growth in underdeveloped area enriched the regional economy development theory oriented by the comprehensive, coordinate and sustainable development value.