Study On Economy And Risk Integrated Evaluation Of Construction Project In Forest Zones

With sustainable and healthy development of national economy, the investment campaign of construction projects in the forest area develops prosperously. However, the risk always comes in with every investment; especially national economy organization is incomplete. Once the risk occurs, the investor will suffer huge loss even bankruptcy. Therefore the economy analysis and risk evaluation are crucial for construction project. From the present situation of construction project economy evaluation of forest area, in fairly long period, we lack of the system study on construction project theory of forest area, especially economic evaluation and risk analysis theory. Therefore the economic evaluation and risk analysis of the construction project of forest area have important realistic meaning.In this dissertation we analyzed thoroughly the present situation of construction project development of forest area, in scientific method, carried out economic evaluation and risk analysis for construction project, and proposed whole qualitative and quantitative analysis method for economy and risk index.The main contributions of this dissertation are listed as below.Firstly, we analyzed present situation and future development requirement of economic appraisement and risk analysis of construction project of forest zone, on this foundation, proposed requirement analysis for re-evaluating economy evaluation system, and then discussed the important meaning and basic thought of economic appraisement for construction project of forest area.Secondly, we analyzed thoroughly economy evaluation index system for construction project, elaborated the significance of risk analysis of construction project of forest zone, and then explained concretely integrated evaluation for construction project of forest zone.Thirdly, through the research of present project economic evaluation technique, with the theory and method of construction project economic evaluation, and characteristics as well, we established the economic evaluation index system and calculation method that suits the construction project of forest area. In this dissertation, with various evaluation techniques, sdecting appropriate financial evaluation index and national economic evaluation index, according to principle that qualitative analysis should combine with quantitative analysis, we proposed that it is useful to evaluate social benefit with Fuzzy-AHP.Fourthly, using other people's research as reference, we introduced Matter Element Extension Evaluation into risk analysis for construction project, applied BP nerve network theory into economy and risk evaluation, and finally built an integrated evaluation model.Finally, we evaluated economy index and risk index for construction project of matchstick factory of Yingchun forestry department through model abovementioned. The practice made the proof that evaluation model is reliable and manipulatable, which has reference value for investment decision-making of construction project of forest area.