| Climate change have been one of the most important factors that influence the global development.In the Synthesis Report on Climate Change 2007, IPCC indicated that climate change will have significant impact on future economy and society,the Mid-latitude Agriculture will face greater difficulties such as severe water shortage. Gansu province is located among the Loess Plateau, Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and Inner Mongolia Plateau,and it is also located in the junction of the three natural areas:the northwest arid area, the Qinghai-Tibet alpine area and the eastern monsoon region.It has inadequate rainfall and low forest coverage.Overall,it is a inland province with scarcity of water resources and poor agriculture production conditions. Agricultural production is restricted deeply by natural conditions with there are frequent natural disasters every year, of which the most severe is drought. In Gansu Province's history,food production has been fallen short of demand for a long-term period.With the overall economic and social development and population growth, food demand increasing will show a rigid state. Under the trend of climate warming, to improve the food self-sufficiency in Gansu Province has of great practical significance. Based on the analysis of climate warming on food production in four regions of Gansu Province,this paper concludes how the temperature rise and precipitation change impacted on regional food production and food plant structure, and it puts forward some suggestions of how to protect the Gansu Province's food security in long-term trend of climate warming.In this paper, conclusions and measures are as follows:In Gansu province, the overall upward trend in temperature is obvious while the precipitation trend is not. Temperature rising have done great impact on the summer food planting structure which is mainly made up of wheat in Hexi region, and it have enabled a increased yield of autumn crops. Warming is also one of the main factors that changed the structure of grain cultivation and improved the autumn sown area and yield in Longzhong region. The sown and the disaster areas are the main factors affecting yield of crops in Longdong area,but the influence of temperature and precipitation on summer and autumn crops needs in-depth analysis. For Longnan region, the contribution of temperature and precipitation to its summer food production was not obvious, an increase in temperature and precipitation can increase the yield of autumn grains in the region.In general, drought is the main affecting factor to food production in all regions. Because of the different agricultural production conditions,the influence of drought upon the four agricultural regions is significantly different.The food production in Longzhong region and Longdong regions is the most sensitive to drought, followed by Hexi region and Longnan region. If long-term warming trend continues, food production will face even more severe restriction of natural conditions.In Hexi and Longnan regions,the sown area is the main factor to determine its output.If in the need of improving the overall food production in Gansu Province, the Longzhong region and Longdong region are the key regions which need to increase their production. In the future, the main problem to solve is how to reduce the impact of disasters and improve grain production capacity.Increasing food production in Gansu province mainly are to increase investment and support in agriculture,they include a big advance in land transfer institution in order to promote the benefits of scale and the transfer of various resources to the grain industry. The key measures of increasing food production in Gansu province are to ensure the sown area in Hexi region, and to improve the food production environment in the central region, particularly to improve water use efficiency and to promote the dry farming technology.The successful Dryland Farming model of Israeli is a good reference for the future food production in Gansu province. |
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