Municipal Lottery Sales System Simulation Model Research

Since the 21st century, China's lottery industry has achieved great development; it has raised large amounts of public funds, operated various benefits and sports undertakings, and provided people an entertainment. In the lottery sales system, the vast majority of sales sites are examined and approved by the municipal lottery management center whose management workload is very big. The administration needs some analysis tool and scientific management method.This paper will use system dynamics method in the lottery sales system model. Using the feedback mechanism system dynamics, question, analyze and solve problems in thinking research. Divide the lottery sales into influence factors and drew the causal feedback diagram, chiefly build lottery sales system flow chart, collect related statistical data and simulation.Model can effectively reflect system feedback activities, simulation results as follows:(1) Lottery sales site construction has a close relationship with lottery sales; they are not positive linear relationship, but a dynamic interaction process.(2) Response lottery sites gap time works with the plan rates to finally affect lottery site number and total sales. The longer response time it is, the smaller lottery quantity change and lottery sales will be. Be aware of that the response time interval and the existence range of low response speed can cause management center's reaction slowness.(3) The increase of lottery index will make lottery site gap smaller and curve slower, meanwhile lottery sales volume and sales level will be reduced with it.(4) When the urbanization appears cyclical fluctuations, the lottery sites shortage will come up and lottery sales will decline.(5) In the next five years, with the current economic growth, lottery sites will achieve a higher quantity in the following 2 or 3 years, but due to the competition and balance mechanism, the quantity will gradually fell down after 3 years, and slowly steady at a reasonable level, lottery sales will show slowly rising trend.Based on fully gather lottery industry information, this model can be used for simulation and analysis of various factors on the lottery sales system, provide lottery industry managers optimization and management science lottery sales system tools.