Scenario Analysis On Carbon Emissions And Simulation Research On Interference Scheme Of Typical Chinese Cities

Under the background of city low carbon transformation, using the carbonemission factors analysis as the main line, to put forward urban optimization schemefor carbon emissions reduction as the goal, this paper analyzed the status of carbonemissions of eight typical city, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Beijing Tianjin, Chongqing,Qingdao, Ningbo, Baoding based on the model of carbon emission influencingfactors,carbon emission calculation and the decoupling theory. The results of carbonemissions calculation show that, the city’s carbon dioxide emissions mainly comesfrom the industry, followed by the third industrial and living consumption; and theemissions in shanghai are the highest, while Qingdao,Ningbo and Baoding’s emissionsare much lower, also the per capita emission is highest in shanghai and lowest inBaoding, the carbon emissions and per capita carbon emissions basically reflects thedevelopment level of a city economic; and the intensity of carbon energy basically canalso reflect the characteristics of energy consumption in the city, such as the highproportion of coal energy structure in Baoding and Chongqing, the high intensity ofcarbon energy they are; meanwhile the characteristics of the industry structure can bereflected by the intensity of the carbon dioxide emissions, such as the emissions inBeijing,Shanghai and Guangzhou are much lower than other cities just because thesecities are given priority to the third industry, while other cities are depended on thesecond industry.Based on the development status of city carbon emissions, this paperanalyzed the influence factors of carbon emissions in eight cities by regression analysisand panel data regression analysis, the results show that the Population, GDP, the totalenergy consumption, and urbanization rate directly affect the city’s carbon emissions as variables, and the proportion of the second industry, the unit GDP energy consumption,energy structure, and energy prices as control variables indirectly affect the city’scarbon emissions. Based on the analysis of these factors, both the carbon emissionsscenarios and the interference schemes in Qingdao are analyzed in this paper, and theresults show that, the goal of reducing the carbon emissions can be realized byadjusting the industrial structure, energy structure and energy price in the relativedecoupling scenarios.