| As global climate warms, meteorological disasters such as heavy rain and floods occur frequently. Coupled with the increasing complexity of Socio-economic system, intrinsic correlations between industries grow stronger, the indirect economic loss of associated regional and industries caused by meteorological disasters become more serious. How to assess the indirect economic loss, and how to take defensive measures for targeted departments and regions according to the assessment results? These difficult problems cause the concern of the government disaster prevention departments, regional government, industry and the public.Based on the literature review and comparative analysis of research methods, this paper select Social Accounting Matrix Model (SAM model) to assess the indirect economic loss caused by meteorological disasters. For the needs of empirical research, this paper prepared Beijing macro-social accounting matrix in2007, and then detailedcommodity accounts, Production accountsandResidents accounts, forming Beijing SAM refined tablein2007. Based on the social accounting principles and multiplier principle, Beijing SAM multiplier model was constructed.Considering the Heavy rainfall in Beijing,21July, as a typical case study, this paper applies multiplier model based on SAM to determine the indirect economic loss among different industrials and indirect economic impact on the residents in Beijing caused by the heavy rainfall, and then screen out industries that are sensitive to the disaster. Mainconclusionsof this paperare concluded as follows:(1) In the scenary of Heavy rainfall in Beijing,21July, caused2.7061%damage of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery. Because of the Inherent relationships between the various accounts of the social and economic system, the industrial indirect economic losses eventually attend10.9702million Yuan, Socio-economic total loss reach18.3614million Yuan. The heavy rainfall also caused Beijing resident income decreased1.1056billion, of which labor income decreased by1.0193billion and capital income decreased by0.0863billion. In the scenarios of three industries suffered losses at the same time, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery damage by2.7061%, Transportation and warehousing damage by1%, Water, environment and public facilities management industry damage by1%. Eventually, the heavy rainfall caused25.1146million Yuan Industry indirect economic losses, and the total loss of the socio-economic reach48.3360million Yuan. (2) Set indirect economic losses value as screening index, this paper select five high-sensitive industries worst affected by the heavy rainfall disaster except for damaged industries themselves, which are food manufacturing and tobacco processing industry, leasing and business services industry, accommodation and catering industry, comprehensive technical services, the chemical industry,wholesale and retail trade industyry, research and development of industry, education, public administration and social organizations, health, social security and social welfare.(3) Inverse relationship between the total effect of residents income caused by the disaster and income levels can be find. The higher the residents’income level, the smaller indirect economic impactscaused by sudden disasters would be.Agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery damagemainly affecting rural residents. Transportation and warehousing industry and water conservancy, environment and public facilities management damage mainlyaffecting urban residents.According to the research results, this paper puts forward some corresponding policy recommendations and also prospect future research. Research methods applied in this paper can provide reference for similar disaster economic loss assessment. And the findings Provide empirical support for disaster prevention and mitigation plan made by the government and industry management department, disaster response and disaster recovery and reconstruction. |
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