Study On Prediction Model Of Railway And Highway Earthquake Disaster Losses

Railways and roads are an important part of the Lifeline Engineering. If damaged in the earthquake, it will cause huge economic losses, and will have immeasurable impacts on the relief work after earthquakes. Many scholars are focused on the building loss assessment, not on railways and roads system. Therefore, the prediction of earthquake damage loss railways and roads is an important work of significant social and economic benefits. Followings are the main works done in the thesis:1. The railway system can be divided into bridge, roadbed, tunnel, tracks and stations. The structural damage characteristics and mechanism of each section are summarized and analyzed.2. Seven major factors affecting bridge damages selected to construct a method to calculate the index of bridge damage. Using multiple linear regression analysis in mathematical statistics and the basis of data and investigation data of the wenchuan earthquake 27 bridge, determine the earthquake influence coefficient value of the factor. According to the seismic damage index and damage grade and damage loss ratio, the bridges direct economic loss of predictive model can be established. To the frame structure and masonry structure, adopting structure damage than matrix was proposed by He Yulin, put forward the direct economic loss of predictive methods railway station. According to the wenchuan earthquake tunnel data, determine the tunnel damage ratio of the various parts under different intensity ratio, And through the tunnel damage ratio, length and corresponding reset price get the tunnel seismic damage model of the direct economic losses.3. According to the characteristics of the mountain railway, highway, traditional roadbed seismic damage loss prediction model should consider the risks of Mountain Hazards. With the earthquake damage investigation data and survey and design drawings of national highway G213 DuJiangYan-YingXiu segment, it can calculate factor values of roadbed seismic damage by use of MATLAB software. With damage grade and damage index values of each section, it can summed to the relationship between index value of road damage and damage grade, the direct economic loss model of roadbed damage can be established with damage radio which is determined by norms. Shuimo data can prove the rationality and practicability of the seismic damage loss prediction model.4. Transport capacity loss can be used to compute the indirect economic loss of railway earthquake damage. Capacity loss value formulas is determined by the diagram of line capacity. Transport capacity loss value can be converted to turnover, can calculate the short-term economic loss of the affected lines, so as to establish the indirect economic loss of railway earthquake damage prediction model.