A Study Of Regional Logistics Collaborative Development Of Xia-zhang-quan Metropolis Based On System Dynamics

Modern logistics industry is composite service industry integrated transportation, warehousing, freight forwarding and information industries and so on, it is an important part of national economy covering the primary industry, secondary industry and tertiary industry in all areas and sectors, which also plays an important role in promoting industrial structure restructuring, accelerating the transformation of the pattern of economic development and strengthening the competitive power of the national economy. It is necessary and urgent for Xia-Zhang-Quan Metropolis to response to the economic globalization and the regional economies integration by strengthening the cooperation of the regional logistics and optimizing allocation of resources, which has great significance to boost the regional economic cooperation and common development. Now, compared to the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei regional logistics industry, the Yangtze River delta and the Pearl River delta in the development of logistics industry, Xia-Zhang-Quan Metropolis was laid behind. there are exist many unadapted factors in resource sharing, the investment structure and logistics infrastructure and so on, especially in the aspect of guiding of government which the lack of favorable promote,have cause to uncoordinate between the development of regional logistics and regional economies coordinated development The purpose of this paper,based on the thought of system dynamics, is to find the key point influencing the coordinated development of regional logistics of Xia-Zhang-Quan and economic by means of the Vensim-PLE virtual simulating real scene, and then we can put forward some suggestions which are benefit to the development of regional logistics of Xia-Zhang-Quan, this will provide a reference for Xia-Zhang-Quan to propel the logistics overall and to deepen the innovation of the Xia-Zhang-Quan Metropolis city’s system and mechanism.This paper mainly analyze the regional logistics supply, logistics demand, and the causal relationship between industrial structure and regional economy, by using data envelopment analysis(DEA) theory to analyze the comprehensive validity of coordinated development of the regional logistics and regional economies, applying the integration of bilateral inspection correlation, multiple linear regression and ordinary least-squares regression analysis(OLS).etc. methods of SPSS software in practice to analyze the co-integration relation among logistic supply, demand and production in order to form the quantitative analysis results, and established the model of the system dynamics(SD). In fact, judging from the study of model of SD between the regional logistics and economic of Xia-Zhang-Quan range from 2000 to 2013,, we can draw the conclusion that it has positive influence in increasing Lntpt and the GPD of the region by stimulating logistic consumption, increasing logistic investment and improving the staff quality. However,it also cause many problems,for example,although excessive and fragmented policy can make logistics benefited in the short term, it will cause the logistics supply and demand imbalances, increasing the vacancy rate of the logistic facilities and the hidden costs, which will be bad for the sustainable development of regional economy(GDP). Xia-Zhang-Quan Metropolis should take the opportunity of the construction of the southeast international shipping center and free trade zone to strive development of logistics and to assist the construction of “One Belt And One Road".