Analysis Of Municipal Housing Market Forecast

House industry has been set up for more than ten years since 1990s in China, and the subject status of house industry has already been established in national economy, the housing market has began to take shape in our country. The market of house of our country entered digestion of the stock and adjustment stage after going through the foam of Hainan in 1993, and then been affected by 97 financial crisis in Asian, and became better tentatively until 2000. The housing market presents the partial hot tendency with the increasing of investment of the construction project such as the infrastructure in recent years, and the range has the tendency to expand further. Overall our housing market will dies once "hit" and will go into disorder once "loose". House closely related to people's lives, so this industry has been paid close attention to by people all the time. These require us to make scientific and rational prediction and analysis objectively. This article carried on prediction and analyzes of housing market from multiple perspectives and multi-level base on the domestic and foreign housing theory, and explains some phenomena existing in the housing market clearly. The article analyses the microcosmic and mechanical housing market by using manufacturer theory and four quadrant model at first; And then carried on the macroscopically economic analysis on the regional economy aspect to the house market; Later carried on urban space analysis to the house market; Finally, we compare the methods in house market prediction on the basis of microcosmic , regional and special analyze, and draw a new predict models. This text was divided into five chapters; the concrete content is as follows: Chapter one Introduction: Show the background ,goal and the significance of selecting the topic, summary the domestic and foreign housing market theory; analyzes housing market of our country with the qualitative analysis and the quantitative analysis. Chapter two The housing market's mechanism analyses: It is mainly the analysis to the market of house on micro aspect. As housing market is not perfect, this chapter apply manufacturer theory into analyzing of enterprise behavior for the first time. Draw the output and profit distribution equation of oligarch of monopoly position; Develop the market reason of high pricing in the housing market. After cost and tax revenue increasing, enterprise can shift half of them to the consumer. We can get these conclusions by using four quadrant model: As the economic growth, increase the demand of the house, at the same time rent and price of the house, amount of stock of market rise to some extent , the range depends on one's own elasticity ; After increasing in interest rate, the house rent goes up, the price , the mount of construct and storage of house drops; After the cost of the house rises, house rent , price rise, but the mount of construct and storage of market have dropped . Chapter three Regional economic analysis of the housing market. Carry on the macro-economical analysis to house market mainly. Have introduced the theory of three departments of area at first, draw the conclusion that house rent will rise if regional products demand and workforce supply caused regional economy developing. But resident wage level of these two situation is different, regional products demand increasing causes high rent and high wage coexist, and workforce supply increasing causes high rent and low wage level coexist. Chapter four Urban space analysis of the house market. With the ideal city model, the urban land rent makes up by two parts--the farmland rent and the position rent that cause by transportation saving. And then we deduced that urban land rent include not only two part mentioned above but also the increasing income part brought by urban expansion with the ideal city model, discuss the problems in low compensate and system design when sell the using right of the land. We analyzed the choice in the rate of best volume of specific position with example finally. Chapter five Market prediction method analysis of the house. Carry on comparative analysis to prediction used in house market mainly. Make an introduction of predicting models about house market. Then compare time array model, GM(1.1), Markov model and OLS and get a new regression mode by choosing different factor and goal function, we find that there is logarithm relation between per capita house sale and per capita GDP in Beijing and Shanghai.