Research On Demand Forecast In Commodity Housing Market Of Harbin City

With the development of China’s real estate market, the housing industry has entered a period of marketization and commercialization. At present, China’s housing market has begun to take shape, which has very significant impact no matter on the whole real estate industry, or correlative industries, human settlement and social economy. Consequently, establishing a scientific prediction model of the housing market is very important, not only for the short-term control and balance of the housing market, but also for the long-term housing industry planning.This paper uses gray relational method and factor analysis method to analyze the effect factors of Harbin city residential demand, then forecasts and analyses of the development of Harbin city housing market by taking advantage of GM (1,1) model and BP network prediction model. By comparing and analyzing the results of these two methods to enrich and develop the application system of the above theories and methods, on the other side to provide some basis of making scientific decisions for government and enterprises.The change of housing demand is the dominant factor in the development of housing market, the guiding force of housing supply changes and is the start point and destination of housing supply. To provide reference for the government to make corresponding macro-control policies and offer the estate enterprises help in their future development what we need is through correct analysis and accurate estimate of housing market demand to grasp the law and trend of its development. Consequently the paper regards the Harbin residential market demand as the study. Firstly, recommending the concept and theory of housing market, housing market demand and development status of Harbin city housing market; secondly, analyzing the effect factors of Harbin city residential demand by using gray relational method and factor analysis method, locating influence factors of Harbin city housing market demand which are statistical and quantitative and sorting the influence factors according to the relational grades between them and housing demand, then indicating the most important factor of them which impacts the changes of Harbin city residential market; finally, forecasting the residential market demand of Harbin city over the next five years by means of GM(1,1) model and BP network prediction model, and offering help for making study of Harbin city housing market demand by drawing a conclusion through making comparative analysis of the predicted results of the above two methods.