The Application Research Of The Simulation Of Uncertainty In The Financial Evaluation Study Of Real Estate Project

Financial Evaluation is the core content of the feasibility study of real estate project.At present, there are mainly three different kinds of uncertainty analysis methods in the real estate projects financial evaluation, including break-even analysis, sensitivity analysis and probabilistic analysis. Those financial evaluations methods have a common feature,which are based on the assumption that the complete data are certainty, neglecting the uncertainties which is caused by the impact of the accuracy of the data. The financial data is based on the premise of the project financial evaluation, as a result,the accuracy of the financial data have a significant impact to the reliable of financial evaluation.Therefore, how to measure the uncertainties factors in financial evaluation on the impact of basic data, and have the accurate estimation of the financial evaluation of basic data is a very urgent and essential task.The paper study the causes of the uncertainties in real estate projects ,and identify the principle of uncertainty in real estate projects financial evaluation. Based on the cost of the cash flow of real estate projects, author analysis the uncertainties which can impact the the results of financial evaluation from there aspacts,that is the cash inflow, cash outflow and the impact of cash inflow&outflow. Classified those factors by the experience uncertainties and market-based uncertainties. Design the original information-gathering methods of experience and market uncertainties, and through the establishment of market-based uncertainties impact indicators proposed fuzzy close-degree of market-based screening raw data uncertainties of the method. Apply the principle of maximum entropy to determine the uncertainties in the distribution of the type of information the proliferation of one-dimensional solution to the uncertainties in the original problem of insufficient data.In order to impove hte traditional methods of financial evaluation,the author propose a beta distribution, normal distribution, triangular distribution, uniform distribution uncertainties of sample information methods of computer simulation. On this basis, the author research the forecasting methodologies of the financial evaluation in the cash inflow, cash outflow. Finally, the paper use the traditional methods of financial evaluation and uncertainties to evaluate the computer simulation of actual cases, and evaluate the results of comparative analysis.The results show that the new method proposed in this paper can be more scientific and reliable to the results of financial evaluation, and provide investors a reliable basis for decision-making.