Research And Development On Early Warning Subsystem Based On Prosperity Index Of Postal Service's Developing

As we all know, postal service does not develop steadily and directly. In fact, it rises in cycle, that is, with prosperity and depression by turns. When postal service fluctuates greatly or slacks badly, crisis appears and it brings losses to the economy, therefore how to set up a monitoring--warning system of postal service's development effectively becomes an important goal for postal management.The Early Warning System Based on Prosperity Index of Postal Service's Developing is the subsystem of Early Waning System of Postal Service's Developing. Through selecting some economic and postal service's indicators in advance, analyzing the statistical materials by statistics, calculating the states of postal operation, the early warning system of postal service's developing is putting forward the appropriate demarcation line of macro adjustments and controls, and carrying on prediction the prosperous situation of postal service's developing, etc. So, setting up the monitoring-warning system of postal service's developing can enable the postal administrative departments not only to be aware of the pulse of postal operation in time accurately, but also make judgments on the developing trend in the future, which aims at taking measures to carry on macro controls appropriately, and developing postal service steadily and high-efficiently.On the basis of the technological project of State Postal Bureau of China-"Early Warning System of Postal Service's Developing", much of content is introduced in this paper, such as the history of development of early warning system, the methods of early warning which are used, a quantitative method for assortment, selection and pretreatment which are used for the prosperity target of postal service's developing, the principle of determination about basic cycle and basic date. Meanwhile, the method of prosperity index for screening indexes of early warning of postal service's developing is expounded. After classifying the beforehand index, consistent index and delay index, the function of the diffusion index and the composite index are introduced. Meanwhile, the designing thought of Early Warning System Based on Prosperity Index of Postal Service's Developing is presented. The designing of all the sub- function modules and database are explained in details.Finally, Early Warning System Based on Prosperity Index of Postal Service's Developing is applied to analyzing the development of postal service in our country from 1996. The positive study is conducted. And the defects which need to be resolve in future, both in theory and in practice are pointed.