Analysis And Management Of Unemployment Early Warning System Based On Data Mining

After the outbreak of the financial crisis,global economic growth were a hit even showed a downward trend,our country is not exceptional also,after the outbreak of world financial crisis,China's economic development is slow,social rising unemployment,a serious threat to social stability,under the premise,the government began to set can reduce the unemployment rate and promote the unemployed again obtain employment strategy.Unemployed early-warning system in A city,has many years of development history,attached to the information system and the public employment service network,A city of unemployed early-warning system constantly improve,has established the enterprise labor monitoring,dynamic monitoring of unemployment,the spring survey of employment,employment,unemployment warning system and human resources investigation and monitoring early warning indexes such as urban and rural areas as well as system integration include employment and unemployment system of monitoring and early warning work but unemployed early-warning system of A city application many deficiencies still exist today,one of the biggest deficiency lies in the lack of dynamic monitoring and the dynamic adjustment ability,moreover,on the whole,A city present employment situation is not serious,but superior departments need to pay attention to such problems as the concealment of unemployment and lack of employment structure rationality,so as to reduce the financial crisis on the damage to the province.For this reason,A city carried out of the construction of the unemployed early-warning analysis system based on data mining and its service network will be in urban and rural areas.The author unemployment theory study and the development of the early warning system,unemployment situation of A city is analyzed in detail,in addition to the choose of social security,economic development and life,and population resource price index,these studies have identified the index structure,the unemployed interception from 1990 to 2013 years of data on the empirical analysis.Model in order to prevent too single impact to the empirical results,the linear relation model test and nonlinear relationship model of BP neural network fitting,respectively,by means of comparative analysis to determine the most suitable model,then using the dialectical way to clear the best model,thus unemployed early-warning model is established,by means of empirical analysis and improve the A city currently unemployed early-warning system.Through the conclusion of this topic is mainly include the following;in this paper,using the dialectical comparison method analyzes the multiple regression model and BP neural network to forecast effect in the unemployment rate,the results show that obvious linear relationship between dependent and independent variables and,with some scholars claim that conclusion in the aspect of prediction runs counter to the view of machine learning has the absolute advantage;Increasing the costof living,promote employment and economic growth to reduce unemployment,optimize and upgrade industrial structure and the overall bias of the third industry,the rise in the Numbers of labor resources,labor costs increase to higher unemployment;A city unemployed early-warning system and has close ties to the local economy development.After the conclusion,the author also put forward its own Suggestions,hope the government can reference in determining the strategy.I hope with the help of exploring unemployment influence factors and the early warning model to empirical analysis to complete the three goals:first,summarizes the experience in early warning of unemployment,unemployment theory,combing the past literature,search for the best model can predict the unemployment.Second,in the building after the completion of the unemployment forecasts to the empirical analysis,through this kind of method to explore the influencing factors of A city,unemployment,and analyze these factors can improve the A city unemployment.Third,build the unemployed early-warning model,using the empirical analysis to further improve the accord with the actual situation of A city unemployed early-warning system,through the analysis of the assessment in the 20 years of A city unemployment,make government in determining the economic and social policies and help the unemployed regulation policy.