| This thesis is related to the key project of COSCO-shipping investment and decision supporting system. It mainly focuses on forecasting model,and aims to provide important economic parameter.This thesis takes international bulk shipping market as an example,specially studies on demand,supply,BDI( Baltic Dry Index) model,and then popularizes these models to other shipping market and more extensive territory. First of all,I summarize the forecast model category and estimate each model in detail,then,I adopt different model to forecast demand,supply,BDI of bulk shipping market. As to demand forecast,I mainly focus on the imitating precision of primitive data,adopt grey forecast model,self-suited filter model separately,and then compose these models as a better one. As to supply forecast,I use econometrics model to describe the complicated relationship of demand,supply,BDI,GNP etc. As to BDI,I try to draw into market integrated factor,describe the relationship of BDI,supply,capacity,speed,rate of oil,navigating capital etc. Then finally,I make afterwards evaluation of these models and then analyze future bulk shipping market in detail. |
