Predictions In Dry Bulk Carrier Fleets' Market In View Of Jugooceanija Shipping Company's Fleet Development

In recent years the market for dry bulk ships and cargoes went through a period of high volatility and turbulence, which greatly shook the supply/demand equilibrium and put many shipowners in an awkward position, expanding the stochastic element in prospects for future development and employment of their fleets. As always, during a period of high volatility within the seaborne trade, a susceptibility to forecasting of future trends in the shipping market becomes much more emphasized, since parties involved in business begin to do their best in enhancing their competitiveness. In that sense, this work deals with analysis of present states and predictions of future trends in seaborne trades in main dry bulk commodities, and present states and predictions of future trends in the world dry bulk fleets' growths. The results obtained are applied to the special case of the Yugoslav shipping company, Jugooceanija.Jugooceanija is, for the time being, in possession of an obsolete fleet with a structure of existing shiptypes which cannot be competitive in the contemporary shipping market any more. After passing through a period of difficulties emerged mostly from the crisis in its political surroundings, the company is entering the new decade quite damaged in both financial and organizational sense. However, despite all difficulties, a crucial need is emerging for the company's fleet renewal in a process of regaining a stable position in the market. This process is all the more emphasized in the present, since general trends in the shipping market have started to improve. Guided by our forecasting analyses, we have made a step toward the process of fleet renewal by determining what kind of dry bulk carriers' market in the near future our company should focus on and what special kind(s) of ship(s) can show the best performance from the company's point of view, resulting in the most favourable future investments.