International dry bulk cargo shipping market , important component of international shipping market, is becoming more and more important with international economic development and adjustment, and its competition is fiercer too. As other cargo transporting market, the international dry bulk cargo shipping market is influenced by world political evenK economic fluctuation and natural factors, it increases the business risks of shipping enterprises. In order to hold the situation of the international dry bulk cargo shipping market and reduce the risk fo the shipping enterprises, it is necessary to conduct an analysis of and research into the international dry bulk cargo shipping market. This dissertation consists of some parts as follows: Foreword brief to introduce international dry bulk cargo shipping market and train of thought of research of this dissertation. Chapter one deals with a general sketch of the international dry bulk cargo shipping market. An analysis is conducted about the international dry bulk cargo shipping market structure> characteristic and development trend. Chapter two concentrates on the analysis of the supply and demand of international dry bulk cargo shipping market, mainly analyse the tendency and influence factors of the market. Chapter three forecast the dry bulk cargo transportation volume by means of the Time Series Analysis and Grey Prediction. Chapter four concentrates on the analysis of the market index system based on the analysis of international dry bulk cargo market supply and demand, and carry on comprehensive appraisal by the means of Factor analysis. It is a conclusion finally, a summary of the full text. The conclusion is as follows:1. International economy is the main factor to influence the international dry bulk cargo seatrade amount. When international economy grows, demand in raw materials increase, and the demand in bulk cargo shipping increase; On the contrary, as the international economy changes over to declining, demand in raw materials decrease, and the dry bulk cargo seatrade amount drop. In the long run , With theiiidevelopment of international economy, The international dry bulk cargo seatrade amount will increase constantly 0 Affected by international economic adjustment, the proportion of raw materials and international dry bulk cargo seatrade amount reduce .2. The supply and demand of International dry bulk cargo shipping market is affected by international dry bulk cargo shipping amount, freight rate, shipbuilding market, etc. Because new order book and delivery of dry ship is too much , cause the transportation to be out-of-balance. Next year the phenomenon of the imbalance of supply and demand will also exist .3. Based on the supply and demand of international dry bulk cargo shipping market ,the dissertation set up the index system, and carry on comprehensive appraisal by the means of Factor analysis. We can see that the value conforms with the fact of international dry bulk cargo shipping market.Yao zuhong (Transportation Planning and Management )Directed by Zong beihua (Professor)... |