Research On Bed Allocation And Forecast Of Hospital And Township Health Center

Health resources are social resources that are used in health care services, while the health resources that can be utilized are limited and rare all over the world. So every nation in the world pays much attention to the study on health resources. In our country, the medical services are mainly supplied by hospitals and township health centers, and beds are the important resources that are needed by hospitals and township health centers to supply medical services. In order to improve the equity of bed allocation and provide suggestion for health cause planning, this article studies the bed allocation to find the problems and forecast the trend of the year from 2006 to 2015 with the relevant data from 1986 to 2005.Objective1. To describe the bed development of hospital and township health center form year 1986 to 2005.2. To analyze the bed allocation situation and evaluate the bed balance situation of supply and demand in 2005.3. To analyze the equity in bed allocation of hospital and township health center. 4. To forecast the bed number of hospital and township health center from year 2006 to 2015 with ARIMA model.5. To provide policy advice based on the results above.MethodsSPSS13.0, EXCEL2003 and ITSM2000 were used employed in this article. Descriptive analysis, Theil index, evaluation of supply-demand balance, RSR, and ARIMA model were used in the process of data analysis.Results1. There had been 2445012 beds of hospital and 689918 beds of township health center respectively, 3134930 beds in total, and 2.45 beds of that in per 1000 population by the end of 2005.2. The average growth rate of bed of hospital and township health center were 2.39% and -0.16% respectively, 1.71% in total, from the year 1986 to 2005.3. There were 3.59 beds of hospital and township health center in per 1000 population in city in urban areas, and 1.43 beds in rural areas which meant that the situation in urban areas was better than in rural areas. There were 2.78 beds of that in eastern areas, 2.23 beds in central areas, 2.24 beds in western areas, which meant that the situation in eastern areas was better than central and western areas. About 75.04% of the hospital beds were in comprehensive hospitals.4. The equity in bed allocation of hospital and township health center was taking a turn for better from 1991, and the whole allocation difference was mainly due to the bed allocation in eastern areas, the difference among zones were becoming greater.5. The ratio of supply to demand was 1.16 and that to need was 1.64, which meant that the supply exceeded demands or need.6. The year in which that the utilization situation of hospital beds were in the better rank were 2002,2003,2004 and 2005, while that of township health center was just 2003. The utilization rate of hospital was just 70%, and that of township health center was below 40%.7. The forecast shows that there will have been 3381400 beds of hospital and township health center and 2.53 beds of that in per 1000 population by the year 2010. And there will have been be 3608700 beds of hospital and township health center and 2.60 of that in per 1000 population by the year in 2015.Conclusions1. To strengthen health enterprise management.2. To implement regional health planning.3. To develop community health services.4. To perfect policies of health economics.5. To heighten improve the utilization rate of the beds.