Research On Blood Demand Forecasting Based On The Analysis Of Clinical Blood Use In W City Blood Center

Research objective:To understand the blood release and blood inventory management and the recruitment management of unpaid blood donation of W City Blood Center.Collecting clinical blood use data to analyze the changes,rules and influencing factors of clinical blood use blood component,and to establish the clinical blood demand prediction model for W City Blood Center for.Based on the theory of public relations and public service,policy recommendations are provided for the dynamic management of blood inventory and the collection and recruitment of unpaid blood donation.Research method:1.Documentation method:Journal articles,books,government work documents and policy reports related to blood collection and recruitment,inventory management and demand forecasting were collected,analyzed,and summarized by taking advantage of CDMD database,CJFD database,and so on.2.Expert consultation method:The general manager of the blood center,the manager of the information department and experts of health policy research and health statistics were chosen to improve the design of the topic,provide suggestions for screening of survey indicators and demonstrate the follow-up model construction and countermeasures.3.Questionnaire method:A full-sample survey was conducted on W City Blood Center to collect data on the clinical use of red blood cells,plasma,platelets and other components in W City from 2006 to 2018.4.In-depth interview:The semi-structured in-depth interviews were conducted with the manager of the general department of the blood center,the leader of blood distribution department of the blood center,and the head of the blood transfusion department of a third-class hospital to understanding the information of blood inventory management,blood distribution management,clinical blood shortage management,and unpaid blood donation recruitment and collection management.5.The statistical method:Excel was applied to establish a database to analyze the use of clinical blood components;The data of total amount of red blood cells,apheresis platelets,and blood types from January 2006 to June 2016 were used to establish a prediction model based on SPSS19.0.The clinical blood use amount from July 2016 to June 2019was predicted with the model,and the model was verified with the actual clinical blood use amount.Results:1.Blood usage of W City Blood Center:From 2006 to 2018,the clinical blood usage of W City blood center coverage areas showed an overall upward trend,from 228995.29U to 479671.50U,with an average annual growth rate of 7.02%;The proportion of component blood transfusions has reached more than 99%,the blood component preparations increased from 14 to 16 in 2018;The usage of red blood cell products increased from 99176.75U to 212449U,with an average annual growth rate of 6.94%;Plasma products increased from 116258U to191754U,with an average annual growth rate of 4.58%,while the proportion of total clinical usage decreased from 50.77%to 39.98%;The apheresis increased from 2342U to 21212U,with an average annual growth rate of 21.26%,and the proportion of clinical usage increased from 1.02%to 4.42%;The cryoprecipitate increased from 1872U to50080U,the average annual growth rate was 34.36%,and the proportion of total clinical use increased from 0.82%to 10.44%.2.Blood distribution and inventory management:During the distribution of blood products,the Blood Center has formulated the“first in,first out”distribution principle,that is,the blood products are sequentially discharged from the warehouse to avoids the waste resulted by expiration.Distribution of conventional blood products generally does not require an appointment.Other blood products or small-dose blood products for infants and young children require an appointment by phone.In order to ensure the reasonable supply of blood products,the blood center has also established a three-level warning system to cope with insufficient inventory.According to the use of blood products in the previous year or the same period throughout the years,combined with the personal experience of managers,the blood product demand for the same period of this year are estimated as the basis for blood collection and preparation.3.Blood recruitment Management:There were 28 mobile blood collection points,4 blood donation cabins and no blood donation houses in W City blood center,which did not met the national requirements for the setting of blood donation session.Although the"Blood Donation Law"has clearly defined the government's main responsibility in the promotion and recruitment of unpaid blood donations,the government has rarely participated in practice.Blood centers were often questioned and treated coldly during publicity and recruitment,which affects the effective collection of blood to some extent.W City Blood Center's unpaid blood donation promotion and recruitment target was pedestrians,aged 18 to 55 years old who are currently eligible for blood donation.Group promotion activities for schools,enterprises and institutions have been carried out very rarely,and young people under 18 years of age have not been included in the queue for potential blood donors.4.Prediction model of clinical blood demand:Prediction models were established using clinical blood data of W City Blood Center from January 2006 to June 2016.The prediction model of clinical demand for red blood cells was ARIMA?3,1,0??0,1,1?₁₂;A,B,O,AB red blood cell demand prediction models were ARIMA?3,1,0??2,1,0?₁₂,ARIMA?3,1,0??0,1,1?₁₂,ARIMA?3,1,0??1,0,1?₁₂2 and ARIMA?3,1,0??0,1,1?₁₂;The prediction model of platelet apheresis was ARIMA?0,1,1??0,1,1?₁₂,and the prediction model for apheresis of each blood group was ARIMA?1,1,0??1,1,1?₁₂,ARIMA?1,1,0??0,1,1?₁₂,ARIMA?0,1,1??0,1,1?₁₂2 and ARIMA?0,1,2??0,1,1?₁₂.The actual blood usage data from July 2016 to June 2019 was used to verify the models.Conclusion:1.The amount of blood for clinical use has increased year by year,and the number of blood component preparations has increased.Red blood cell products,apheresis platelets and cryoprecipitate and other components have reached a blood transfusion rate of more than 99%.2.The prediction of clinical blood usage is mainly based on personal experience and subjective judgments.Therefore,the estimates of blood collection,preparation and inventory are often unscientific and inaccurate,which has caused a lack of supply of blood products and a"opposing"mood between hospitals and blood centers.3.The number of fixed blood collection points is small;the government is absent in the promotion and recruitment of unpaid blood donation;the proportion of group donation is too low;the propaganda model was flawed.4.The ARIMA model has good prediction effect and high accuracy for clinical blood demand,suggesting it is suitable for prediction of clinical blood demand in W city blood center,and can provide scientific basis for recruitment and collection of blood donation.Policy suggestion:1.Scientifically predict clinical blood demand based on the ARIMA model,and improve blood inventory and warning system.2.Recruitment and promotion of unpaid blood donation:Increase the number of fixed blood collection points;strengthen government responsibility;increase the proportion of unpaid blood donation for groups;optimize the propaganda model.3.Establish blood information management system for W city and unify the city's technical management standards;establish an information sharing mechanism between blood collection and supply institutions,and blood collection and supply institutions and clinical blood use institutions to grasp the demand for clinical blood timely;establish city-wide coordination unified blood distribution mechanism to alleviate the contradiction between blood supply and demand.