Evaluation And Prediction Of Configuration Of Large Medical Equipment In Liaoning Province

Objective: The Minister of Health, Gao Qiang, when he talked about Reform and Development policy of the medical and health undertakings during "11th Five-Year Plan", pointed out that:to improve the fairness of medical service, to satisfy demands of basic medical service of urban and rural residents, is our emphasis in the future; to strengthen medical service construction of the public, country and community; to optimize the configuration of medical resource; and to accelerate the better utilization of medical resources. Depending on that, a few years later, the primary role that the government plays in medical sector is to improve the fairness. Among the medical resources, large medical equipment is one of the most important and plays a very vital role in the process of modern medical diagnosis and treatment, whose rationality of configuration has a great impact on the rights and interests of resident health. This paper is trying to set up new rational configuration mechanism, forecast configuration standards of future large medical equipment, provide the scientific foundation for rational configuration of medical resources for the Health Administration, promote the fairness and healthy development of the medical and health undertakings, based on geographical and population distribution of five kinds of large medical equipment among large B Medical Equipment, categorized by The Ministry of Health, among 14 cities in Liaoning province.Method: This paper is trying to form Lorenz Curve of large medical equipment in 2004, by taken the amount of CT,MRI,DSA,SPECT,LA deployed in 14 cities of Liaoning province in the year 2004, population, geography, economy and etc of these 14 cities from year 1999 to year 2006as our research objects, to calculate out the Gini Coefficient to show the fairness of configuration of large medical equipment at present, to make use of HRDI Model to measure rational amount of medical resource configuration, and then to forecast the future configuration of large medical equipment in our province by utilizing variable predictable model to set up the regression equation.Result: In the year 2004, the overall Gini Coefficient for the population configuration of large medical equipment in Liaoning province is 0.190, and that for geography is 0.376, which means fairness for population configuration is better than that for geography. Fairness for CT is better than that for other four large medical equipments, among these five, SPECT shows the worst fairness. Through the measurement of HRDI Model, the overall Gini Coefficient for the population configuration is 0.1180; that for geography is 0.1158. As for the population configuration, the Gini Coefficients of CT,MRI,DSA,SPECT,LA are 0.1180, 0.1178, 0.1182, 0.1186, 0.1180 respectively; as for geographic configuration, those are 0.1159, 0.1160, 0.1156, 0.1152, 0.1158。By the use of HRDI Model, the fairness of large medical configuration in Liaoning province shows a great improvement. By taking CT,MRI,DSA,SPECT,LA in Liaoning province 2004 as dependent variables, taking population, geography, economy and etc of these 14 cities from year 1999 to year 2006 as independent variables, make use of principal factor analysis methods to filter the related variable, set up lagged regression equations: YCT=1.44+0.002X1+0.034X2+0.227X3,YMRI=0.226+0.0004X1+0.006X2+0.009X3,YDSA=0.247+0.0004X1+0.006X2+0.039X3,YSPECT=0.065+0.0001X1+0.001X2+0.009X3,YLA=0.175+0.0003X1+0.004X2+0.028X3。Through the precision measurement of results from the above equation, it is shown that by the end of"11th Five-Year Plan", configuration amounts for CT,MRI,DSA,SPECT,LA are 352.29,67.21,66.35,15.39 and 8.23 respectively. Through the prediction results, in a few years later, configuration amount for those equipment is on the trend, which at the same time will gradually improve the unfairness of population and geographic configuration.Conclusion: To configure the large medical equipment rationally, and to improve the fairness of configuration is helpful to lessen the medicalservice gap between city and country, regions, and different crowds, which accords with the development direction of accelerating the development of the medical and health undertakings the government bring forwarded. According to results of forecasting, we put forward suggestions as follows: strictly enforce < Management Method of Large Medical Equipment Configuration and Application > established by the the Ministry of Health; configure the large medical equipment according to the regional programming, pay much more attention to advance, adaptability and availability, realize the sharing of regional medical resources, gradually improve the utilization ratio of the equipment; establish and perfect the supervision system for large medical equipment. The future work should place emphasis on public and country health; as for the city medical service, to provide enough resources to the primary medical health care. Resources configuration should be classified into general resources and emergency reaction resources, and be managed separately.