Study On The Prediction Of Bedspace Resource Allocation In Medical Institutions

Background:With the further development of health service, Chinese government is paying more and more attention to optimizing health resources allocation and promoting regional health planning. Bed is a fundemental resource for medical institutions, which is also a key indicator to measure health resources level in a country or a region. The research on health resource alloction can provide policy suggestions and method supports for guiding regional health resource development.Objective:Focusing on beds in medical institution, the paper identified the existing main problems on bed resource alloction in medical institutions in Hubei province, through systematic analysis of the residents’ health status, supply and demand situations of medical institutions resources and bed utilization. It then predicted the demands of bed in the period of 2015-2020 on the basis of current beds resources allocation combined with existing problems of beds resources distribution among medical institutions in Hubei.Methods:A combination of qualitative and quantitative analysis was employed in this paper. Qualitative method was used to describe the factors affecting resident health status and analyze the characteristics of medical institutions beds resource allocation in hubei province. A combination of qualitative and quantitative analysis was used to describe the status quo of total beds resource, resource layout and medical institutions configuration, evaluation the supply and demand of medical beds, and predict the required number of beds within a period of time in the future.Results:The findings mainly including invole three parts:requirements and needs of medical institutions bed resources of Hubei residents, supply situation of bed resources and existing problems in medical institutions, the allocation structure of bed resource in medical institutions in 2015 and 2020.(1) Looking at the supply of medical institution bed resources, there were 4.38 beds for every thousand people in 2012, which is slightly higher than national average level. With respect to resource layout, unequitable distribution of beds resources existed within and between cities and regions. Beds resources of high quality were excessively distributed in Wuhan.In terms of bed resource structure, the bed number per thousand capita in urban areas was way lager than that in rural areas. And inequity in medical institution bed resource allocation stood out in suburb and rural areas. General hospital had largest amount of beds, accounting for 50.91%. Distinct difference presented in the allocation of medical institution of different level in different areas. Hubei had also seen problems of too large bed number and bed overutilization in tertiary hospitals. In 2012, Hubei hospital beds utilization rate was 99.3%, and this figure reached 102.75% in public hospitals.(2) Based on the requirements and needs of medical institutions bed resources, both the urban and rural ratio of patients getting sick within 2 weeks without getting treatment and shoud-have-hospitalise raio in Hubei are higher than the national average level. And financial difficulty is still the primary factor to blame. With the improvement of living standards, bad habits, increasing prevalence of chronic diseases, and reducing non-attendance rate which is not hospitalized, the residents’ demands and needs of medical institutions bed resources will significantly increase in the future.(3) The prediction suggested that the number of medical institution beds in Hubei should lie in the interval of 275.0 to 301.8 thousand in 2015. And this figure was projected to be 424.3 thousand in 2020 as the Grey Model indicated. Some adjustments had been made on medical institution bed distribution structure in Hubei according to its bed supply and demand situation and further reference to the density of medical institution beds per 1000 population in 2015 and 2020 in National Health Service System Planning Scheme. But the predicted results showed the inequity of bed alloction still existed in 2015 compared with 2012 on bed density per 1000 population. The inequity reflected on low level of bed allocation per 1000 population in cities nearby Wuhan, while other cities like Shiyan, Enshi and Yichang had showed a greater level of bed resources. In a word, the year 2020 would experience a more equitable bed allocation in different recgions in Hubei than 2015 and the differences of bed density per 1000 population within and between regions are narrowing down. Two areas of dense medical resources had emerged with one in the north and the other in the south of Hubei.Conclusion:The present situation of medical institutions beds resources in basic balance between supply and demand in Hubei, but there will be a modest increase in the future; allocation of resources can be combined with the status quo beds in the allocation of resources around the city, trying to reverse the irrational phenomenon resources; take efforts to develop the grassroots medical institutions and social resources beds, in order to compensate the structural imbalance.