Evaluation For The Risk Of Tanker's Oil Spill

With the development of economic China's energy demand is increasing. China has become oil-importing countries from oil-exporting countries since 1993. As the third biggest oil-consuming countries in the word in 2008, china imported 1.89 hundred million tons crude oil and it is expected that the oil import will reach 2 hundred million tons in 2010.90% of the import oil transported by oil tank. The volumes of oil-transportation reach 2 hundred million tons each year, this figure will increasing in the future. Beside, there are about 200 oil tanks navigate in China's coastal, this will make the navigation environment become more complicated.Therefore this paper is making general assessment of tanker's oil spill. Based on the survey of the experts and analyze of oil spill accidents, we consider main risk factors of tanker's oil spill and analyze main factors of the risk of tanker's oil spill. Establish the evaluation index system according to systems analysis. Make the synthetic evaluation about the oil spill with fuzzy mathematics and mathematical statistics as basic methods.This paper improves traditional AHP method. Use AHP method based on expert's reliability, acquired the weight distribution of oil spill risk influencing factors which based on the expert's reliability. Utilize fuzzy mathematics and mathematical statistics to obtain the membership. Apply third class fuzzy synthesis mathematics model to evaluate based on the evaluation index system and apply to practical; Make the recommendations of how to reduce the risk of tank's oil spill.